With today's break above 1,120.85 I clearly got the messages, that the rally from the 1,011.52 isn't over yet. I'm not giving up on my long term bearish view, but I might have been blind sighted by this long term bearish view and have tried to force my opinion down over the market and that stuff seldom works. The market is always right ! I'm not always. I know I have limitations and the way I deal with them is always having stops on every trade taking small trades and try to hang in there when the trend is really you friend.The long term bearish picture stays, but the very short term has clearly become bullish again after break back above 1,120.85 reviving the "old" 1,140 - 1,145 target area.
What could have been a overlap between wave iv and i of C clearly wasn't and overlap, because if it was we wouldn't be up here.
So lets see where wave C ends and lets take it from there.
Hi,
ReplyDeleteIs there a possibility that this wave goes beyond 1140-1145 range and go till the new high or 1220 range. If that is the case that means from here that is 8% rally. Would that mean that the next fall wouldn't be as severe?
Would like to know your opinion?
Thanks
Hi Y,
ReplyDeleteOh yes!
Looking at the bigger picture there is a couple of alternate counts to my favorite count. One of them is that we are tracing out a big triangle, if this is the case the we should see more upside before the D-leg is over. What speaks against the trinagle concept is, that the possible C-wave was way to clean. The C-wave is normally the most complex wave in triangles.
An other possible alternate count is that the big correction from 2000 ende in March 2009 and we are in the very early parts of a new Supercycle rally that would take us much higher and last many more years. What speaks against that picture? FED has for many years fiddled with the economic cycles, which has created and enormus amount of credit, which is the fuel for the stockmarket. The financial crisis has started a priode of credit contraction, which still is very much intact. so the fuel for the stocks isn't there so what should lift them?
I also think that it's important to look at the demograpics. The Baby Boomer generations, which is the biggest generation ever born is retirering at an ever faster pace and it should take more years before the rest of us is able to pick up the pace from them.
All of that in my view points towards more declines ahead. I'm not as bearish as Precther is, but I do think that we need more downside action as pointed out in my chart in the post.