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Friday, August 13, 2010

S&P 500 - More downside to come... Much more

The low at 666,79 [A] was an important low and if you add the numbers 6+6+6+7+9 together you will get 34, which is a Fibonacci number. If you do the same with the 1,219.80 high [B] you will get the next lower Fibonacci number 21 that indicates that we should be looking for the Fibonacci number 13 next, but as the rally from [A] to [B] took 13 months we might be on the outlook for the Fibonacci number 8 instead. Whether we will find it in time duration or a fixed point, is not that important rigth now. What's important is that it seems that we are looking for an Fibonacci sequence going from the number 34 and down.

Wave 2 of [C] down ended at 1,129.24 and as wave 3 is normally the most dynamic, steep, violent we should expect the low at 1,011.52 to be broken soon for a decline to at least 951, but a more likely target would be 840,72.

If wave 1 down from 1,219.80 ended at 1,041.32 (The alternate count), then we have seen an flat correction, it's very important to notice, that wave C of that flat correction didn't break above the top of wave B at 1,131.08. That type of flat corrections is called "Running flats" (see Elliott Wave Principle page 48). They are very rare. In the Elliott Wave Principle Prechter and Frost says "We must issue a warning, however. There are hardly any examples of this type of correction in the price record..." This might be an excellente example of an running flat correction. The implications, if it is a running flat correction, is very telling. It forsay that the we are in a very strong and fast market and in this case it is to the downside.

If wave 1 of [C] ended at 1,011.52 the following correction was a much more common Zig-zag. Telling us that the battle between the bulls and bears was hard, but the bears won and we should now headed lower in wave 3 of [C]



2 comments:

  1. Hi there - good to see you're back to posting! It's been a busy week :)
    Any new thoughts on the AUD/USD pair since topping? ...I'd love to see your possible wave count/projections .(..mine look a bit unclear!)

    Jem

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  2. I just found the blog today, I'm definitely going to tune in more, very nice charting, your analysis from what I've been following on my charts, mainly S&P and Forex is superb, looking forward to your updates, Paulfx

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