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Wednesday, August 18, 2010

S&P 500, EUR/USD and AUD/USD - All the same - Not!

The S&P 500 just reached my target area betwwen 1,100 - 1,106 yesterday. The correction from 1,070.67 (adding the figures together 1+0+7+0+6+7 = 21 - Nice little Fibonacci relationship) was a nice zig-zag, where the c-leg became extended towards 1,100.14.
All demands for wave 2 has been fulfilled and we should now see wave 3 down. This wave should be the most dynamic and violente calling for a decline to at least 1,005 area.

A break below 1,082 and more importantly 1,075 will confirm the next leg lower.

EUR/USD became the outsider of the pack. If the wave 2 correction from 127.32 is over, the correction became very shallow and clearly subnormal indicating, that the EUR is very weak at the moment. However the is the possibility that we have only seen the first part of the correction and it needs more time, but for now lets keep an eye on 127.32 for clues.

By the way. I noticed a nice little relationship between the August 6 peak at 133.33 and the Fibonacci numbers. If one add the numbers 1+3+3+3+3 you will get the Fibonacci number 13
That do add support to the 133.33 high as being an important high.


The Aussi slightly overshot my target zone, but the following decline below 90.11 was the clue, that the wave 2 correction ended at 90.82 and we should now see wave 3 decline to at least 86.30, but more likely we will see a decline to 84.94.

Be very care as the possibility of a total washout in the AUD is a possibility. We saw that during the 2008 decline and it could easily be seen again.


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