As can be seen on the daily chart we have a clear five wave decline from the top at 89.62 on March 4 2009. What I have been trying to do is pinpoint the finanl bottom. On monday i said that we needed one more decline closer to the 74.00 area.
I have made a purple box around minor wave v down in the larger degree C wave, as this is the part which is interesting - Lets take a closer look.
On the 30 minute chart we again can see a clear five wave decline from the top at 75.57 on November 27. So the most important element of the Elliott wave theory has been fullfiled.
With a low at 74.26 we didn't get a new low below 74.17 closer to the 74.00 area, but that could have been a truncated wave v.
The important part is what comes after the low at 74.26 - Lets take an even closer look.
At the 5 minute chart we can see a five wave move higher from 74.26 to 74.49. The wave (iv) part was interesting, but wave (iv) did not overlap with wave (i) keeping the possible wave i interpetation alive. What we need now is a powerfull wave iii higher towards at least the 74.77 area, which is where the medianline of the red Andrews pitchfork is located and a break above here would call for a move closer the 75.00 area.
Of cause this could only be a correction, but then we should soon see a break below 74.38 and a last run towards the 74.00 area.
If this is the bottom for the USD-Index, then we should soon see the stock-indicies start thier declinces.
No comments:
Post a Comment