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Wednesday, December 23, 2009

AUD/USD - Wave iv to 89.19 - 89.30 has begun




My wave iii target at 87.49 was exceede slightly with a low set at 87.33. The break above the minor channel resistance (the blue channel) indicates, that the wave iii has finished and wave iv is ongoing.

Looking at wave ii I see it as some kind of irregular flat, which would call for a simple zig-zag in wave iv under the Elliott wave Principle of alternation (See A.J. Frost and Robert Precters "Elliott Wave Principle" page 63).
As I wrote yesterday the ideal target for wave iv would be the top of wave (iv) of a lesser degree, which comes in at 89.30, while the 38.2% correction target would come in at 89.19.

Short positions in AUD ag. USD should be closed or at least cut in half, waiting for a new shorting oppotunity close to the 89.19-89.33 target area.

Only intraday traders should try to play the correction buying AUD ag. USD with a stop just below 87.33, but risk is greater than normal, because one would be trading against the main trend, which is down.

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