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Monday, December 7, 2009

Gold - Can the Gold-bulls manage one more rally?



Trying to find the top of Gold-bubble will not be easy, but maybe this is the way to do it?

Lets take it in three steps:

1: The orange channel-top has not been tested, so maybe, just maybe, we need one more rally towards the top, which today is at 1,241.75

2: The two purple rectrangles are equal in size, if the current rally is to equal the first rally from December 23 2008 to February 5 2009 we still have four more days to go. A top should then be found on December 11 2009 at 1,247

3: The circle also leaves the posibility for one more rally too. Ideally gold would rally close to 1,247 within the next couple of days.

With the above said please notice, that the median for the circle at 1,225 has had an almost perfect test with the December 3 high at 1,226.
A clear break below support at 1,136 would indicate, that a top has already been found and that wave C has begun. As long as support at 1,136 holds firm, we can't exclude one more rally higher towards 1,247, but that would be a huge sell if seen.

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