I have been rather quiet in regards to the Dow Jones Industrial index lately and for a very good reason, Nothing has happened since mid-November. We have been going sideways and the picture is in no way clear. We have a number possible counts at this point in time. When everything is cloudy Robert Prechter, Jr. said that it might be best to step aside to the picture clears up.
As I just said above I do not have a clear picture at the moment, as more possible count has more or less equal weight, but that doesn't mean I shouldn't be prepared when the market action shows me the most possible count.
The two counts presented here are more or less equal in weight, with a slight overweight to the first count.
Looking at that count we might have seen a leading diagonal as wave 1 down from 10,516.54 (see a more detailed picture below on the 10 minuets chart). If this picture is the right one, wave 2 problably ended yesterday at 10,444.22 and we should se a break below 10,381 for a new test of important support at 10,231 and a break below here raises the problability for this count to be the rigth one to close to 100 %.
So the aggressive trader could short a break below 10,381 with a tight stop just above 10.444 (thats less than 1% risk).
A break above 10,444.22 would tip the odds in favore of, what I have called the alternate count, calling for one more new high above 10,516.54 ending wave C and [B].
A more detailed picture of the possible leading diagonal.
This alternate count will be the prefered one if we see a break above 10,444.22.
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