GBP/USD Monthly
GBP/USD Daily
Please see my long term view for Cable here first: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2013/10/elliott-wave-analysis-of-gbpusd-long.html
After ending wave D of the huge B-wave triangle we are currently in wave E and we can already say, that wave E is unfolding as some kind of a flat correction. A clear break below support at 1.5883 will call for a continuation lower towards 1.5506 and could move all the way down to the triangle support line near 1.5000.
However, we have to remember, that E-waves can be sub-normal and end early, which a break above 1.6260 will indicate, but we need a break above 1.6381 to confirm, that the B-wave triangle has ended and wave C higher towards 1.9231 is unfolding.
USD/JPY Monthly
USD/JPY Daily
Nikkei Quaterly
Nikkei Monthly
I'm looking for a powerful rally higher in USD/JPY very soon. Looking at the monthly chart of USD/JPY we a seeing a very clear red wave iv triangle, which should cause a strong thrust towards the upside, when we break above the triangle resistance line at 99.12 and more important above the top of wave D at 100.61, which would call for a continuation higher towards 106.33.
I was also asked for my opinion on the Nikkei Index as that correlates with USD/JPY. I agree there has been a correlation since the 2011 low. But if you have been reading my blog long enough you will know, that I'm not a big fan of correlation and the reason is quite simple, when just about everybody has figured out, that a correlation exits, then it will magically disappear. I have added a correlation chart below the quarterly chart, which clearly shows that this correlation comes and goes as it pleases, so be careful regarding correlations as the holy grail.
EUR/JPY Monthly
EUR/JPY Daily
Finally my long term view for EUR/JPY call for a rally towards 191.82. This rally will of cause not be in a straight line and I think we are closing in on a medium term top for a decline towards at least 124.85 and likely even lower towards 118.72, before the next powerful rally higher.
That said, the overlapping rally from the 124.85 low could be a leading diagonal and if this is the case, we will likely only see a decline to 131.10 before the next swing higher towards 148.85 and higher.
Hi EWS,
ReplyDeleteThank you a lot for your amazing analysis,
have a GREAT weekend.
Regards,
Panos
Hi Panos,
DeleteThank you very much.
A great weekend to you too.
Kind regards
EWS
hi ews! great work! eurjpy longtherm i saw the same. A B C. C about 250. at the nikkei some analysts see only a abc correction then a downmove to 4000 (y). your outlook is much better for me :). i hope youre right.
ReplyDeletethank you very much for your time.
You are the master!!!thanks a lot
ReplyDeletecorrect me if iam wrong.....if i understood your analisies in eurjpy now we are going to 131.1 then up to 148 and down to 124.is it true?
ReplyDeleteHi Zink,
DeleteIt depends on which type of pattern we are currently looking at.
If it's and ending diagonal as wave 5 I would expect a decline to follow to at least 124.85. However, if it's a leading diangonal, then we should expect a rally to 148 to follow a decline to 131.10.
So for now we will just have to see what unfolds, but one thing is for certain we can't allow a break above 138.39 if this either an ending diagonal or a leading diagonal, as wave iii can never be the shortest and that we be the case if we see a break above 138.39.
Kind regards
EWS
Thanks EWS, Great work as usual!!
ReplyDeleteDuane