Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 132.46
R2: 132.17
R1: 131.79
Current Spot: 131.58
S1: 131.20
S2: 130.88
S3: 130.55
Technical Summary:
With the break below important support at 132.37 my bullish call for one last rally higher to 137.05 was invalidated and at the same time told us, that wave v of 5 of I is already over and the wave II towards at least 125.74 is well under way. A decline to 125.74 will only have corrected 23.6% of wave I, which would be a sub-normal correction, but we can not rule out this possibility. However, a more normal correction would call for a decline towards the correction-zone between 118.70 and 119.70, where wave II will have corrected 38.2% of wave I.
Short term we have seen a break below the base-channel, which indicates, that wave iii of A is developing. Wave iii is normally the strongest and most powerful wave and we should expect extension during this wave and an extension will call for a wave iii decline towards at least 128.58.
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 1.6289
R2: 1.6241
R1: 1.6187
Current Spot: 1.6096
S1: 1.6077
S2: 1.6007
S3: 1.5913
Technical Summary:
With the break below the invalidation point at 1.6016 I knew my bullish count was wrong and I have now adopted my alternate count as the preferred count. This count calls for a wave c of X lower towards 1.5525 before we can expect a new rally higher.
Short term I expect resistance at 1.6187 to protect the upside for a break below 1.6027, which would call for a new test of 1.5913 on the way lower towards 1.5525. However, if we does see a break above 1.6187 we should secondary resistance at 1.6241 protect the upside for a new decline. A break above 1.6241 will be very frustrating, but only a break above 1.6349 will prove this count to be wrong.
Thanks for the update with ZAR EWS
ReplyDeleteBest Regards jt
hi! what would be e good entry short in eurjpy?do you think from this levels it will retrace and above 132 is a good entry short?
ReplyDeleteHi Zink,
ReplyDeleteI think a short entry at 131.90 or if we see a break below 131.30 first.
Remember your stop!!!
Kind regards
EWS
Hi!
DeleteHi will wait for NFP release then i will make any clue! But waitting for any move above 132! I will not surprise if eurjpy testing the broken trendline!
Thanks!
As i told you....eurjpy rising to test the broken trendline! If it rise more above 133 or 133.60i think it comes to bulish mode again!
DeleteGreat Charts Have a Great Weekend
ReplyDeleteBest Regards jt
Ps Twitter may go the same way as FB allot of buying on releas pushing prices to much to higher levels than expected then big sell off,what are your thoughts EWS.
Hi JT,
DeleteI think you are right about Twitter. I hope I will be able to find some long term data as I did on FB otherwise I will have to wait some weeks before a readable pattern will emerge. I personally will dump all my shares if I owed any (I don't).
Also a great weekend to you too.
Kind regards
EWS
Hi EWS,
ReplyDeleteThanks as ever for all the charts
not something I normally look at but what do you think of nasdaq?
possibly A from 2000 to 2002 then a(02'-07')/b (07' - 09') /c(09-13') to currently finish B wave with c at1.618x A wave?
thanks for everything and the divergence across equity indices (although not confirmed) is daunting/exciting, looking at monthlies has'nt been this pent up since 07'
have a good weekend
Hi T.M
DeleteSorry for the late reply.
As we alreay has broken above the 1.618 times wave A target I would be looking for the possibility of a continuation higher towards the 2 times wave A, which would give us a target closer to 3,877.
What should continue to force us higher to that level I don't know, but we should not underestimate the power of FED QE-programs as the past 4 years has shown us. However, the first sign of FED cutting is QE-program we will likely see a massive decline.
Normally we will see a irrational buying near a major top and I don't think we are near that top, but then we could say, that FED's QE-buying is irrational and a cut-back or worse for the Markets a closeing of the programs all together could real harm the Markets.
Kind regards
EWS