Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for November 28 - 2013

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 139.89

R2: 139.34

R1: 138.84

Current Spot: 138.70

S1: 138.31

S2: 137.67

S3: 137.10

Technical Summary:

With the break above 138.30 the ending diagonal count was invalidated. I have been back to the drawing board and has been forced to change my count slightly according to the new situation. However, the new count just shows, that an even larger ending diagonal is developing and as it was the case before we are close to the final top of wave v of 5 and should see a larger correction develop soon. If we measure the distance traveled from the bottom of wave 1 to the top of wave 3 and multiply it with 0.618, then we get a target of 139.89 for wave 5. This is one of the most common ways to calculate a wave 5 target. 

Short term we should be looking for support at 138.31 to protect the downside for a break above 138.84 confirming a continuation higher towards the ideal target at 139.89. A break below 138.31 will be the first indication, that an important top is in place, but only a break below 137.67 will confirm the top and that a correction towards at least 124.92 is already  developing.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6733

R2: 1.6692

R1: 1.6642

Current Spot: 1.6620

S1: 1.6572

S2: 1.6472

S3: 1.6392

Technical Summary:

There was no time for a deeper correction and we saw a direct break above resistance at 1.6636. The direct break above 1.6636 has forced me to change my count slightly, but this new count is even more bullish longer term. Short term we can count a five wave rally from 1.6050, which only marks red wave i and I expect the ongoing red wave ii to reach the 1.6380 - 1.6392 zone before red wave iii takes over for a powerful rally higher towards 1.7484 and maybe even higher. However, for now we should be looking for a short term correction towards the 1.6380 - 1.6392 zone before higher again.