Elliott wave analysis of DJI - Wave D of the major expanding triangle is terminating.

Dow Jones Industrial Index

Wave D of the major expanding triangle is still developing, but the upside potential is becoming increasingly limited. However, as long as support at 15,867.35 stays unbroken we must accept the possibility of a move closer to 16,200 and even a continuation higher towards 16,337, where wave v will be equal in length to wave i of c.

That said the bearish divergence, that have been developing since June 2013 warns that a major top could be in very soon.

As always it will be prudent to protect your positions with a stop. It can be an aggressive stop just below 15,867 or a much more conservative stop just below 14,551.

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/USD

GBP/USD Monthly

GBP/USD Daily

 

 

We have seen a new high here, but have that changed my count?

 

No I still is looking for wave E of the triangle to take over soon for a decline towards at least 1.5854. We should expect to see strong resistance near 1.6405 protect the upside for a break below 1.6257 confirming, that wave D is over and wave E is developing.

 

Only a break above the top of wave B at 1.6747 will invalidate the above Count and indicate, that the huge B-wave triangle already has finished and wave C towards 1.9339 is developing.



Elliott wave analysis of AUD/USD

AUD/USD

Please see my post from October 19 here first: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2013/10/elliott-wave-analysis-of-audusd-and.html

We saw the top close to the 50% correction and we are now seeing acceleration towards the downside. We can also see a S/H/S top-pattern adding support to the downside pressure.

For the long term I'm still looking for much more downside here. My minimum expectation is for a decline towards 0.8204, where wave C will be equal in length to wave A, but I would not be surprised to see and extension lower towards 0.8065 and mayby even lower, but time will tell.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for November 29 - 2013

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 139.89

R2: 139.70

R1: 139.55

Current Spot: 139.22

S1: 138.88

S2: 138.31 Break below this support will be the first indication of a top in place

S3: 137.77

Technical Summary:

With a high at 139.70 (just 19 pips below the ideal target at 139.89) we could have the top of wave v of 5 in place. However, we need a break below 138.33 as the first good indication, but only a break below important support at 137.10 confirms the top for a major wave II correction, that will take us down to at least 124.92 (the origin of the ending diagonal). 

Short term as long as support at 138.31 stays unbroken we could still see one last rally higher towards the ideal target at 139.89 before the top is finally in place.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6970

R2: 1.6890

R1: 1.6843

Current Spot: 1.6799

S1: 1.6749

S2: 1.6710

S3: 1.6637

Technical Summary:

With the clear break above 1.6733 green wave v is extending and the next target for green wave v is at 1.6970, where green wave v is 100% of the distance traveled from the bottom of green wave i top the top of green wave iii. As we also have broken clearly out of the base-channel we should expect only small or even sub-normal corrections as wave iii extends higher.

Short term we should expect support at 1.6749 will protect the downside for a continuation higher towards 1.6970. A break below 1.6749 or more importantly a break below 1.6710 will call for a deeper correction towards 1.6625 before higher again.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for November 28 - 2013

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 139.89

R2: 139.34

R1: 138.84

Current Spot: 138.70

S1: 138.31

S2: 137.67

S3: 137.10

Technical Summary:

With the break above 138.30 the ending diagonal count was invalidated. I have been back to the drawing board and has been forced to change my count slightly according to the new situation. However, the new count just shows, that an even larger ending diagonal is developing and as it was the case before we are close to the final top of wave v of 5 and should see a larger correction develop soon. If we measure the distance traveled from the bottom of wave 1 to the top of wave 3 and multiply it with 0.618, then we get a target of 139.89 for wave 5. This is one of the most common ways to calculate a wave 5 target. 

Short term we should be looking for support at 138.31 to protect the downside for a break above 138.84 confirming a continuation higher towards the ideal target at 139.89. A break below 138.31 will be the first indication, that an important top is in place, but only a break below 137.67 will confirm the top and that a correction towards at least 124.92 is already  developing.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6733

R2: 1.6692

R1: 1.6642

Current Spot: 1.6620

S1: 1.6572

S2: 1.6472

S3: 1.6392

Technical Summary:

There was no time for a deeper correction and we saw a direct break above resistance at 1.6636. The direct break above 1.6636 has forced me to change my count slightly, but this new count is even more bullish longer term. Short term we can count a five wave rally from 1.6050, which only marks red wave i and I expect the ongoing red wave ii to reach the 1.6380 - 1.6392 zone before red wave iii takes over for a powerful rally higher towards 1.7484 and maybe even higher. However, for now we should be looking for a short term correction towards the 1.6380 - 1.6392 zone before higher again. 

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/USD - Short term

GBP/USD

Panos asked me for my short term view on Cable.

I think we have wave D of the major B-wave triangle in place at 1.6256. From 1.6256 we have seen wave i and ii likely ended at 1.6236 and I will now be looking for a impulsive decline towards at least 1.5668, which a break below 1.6133 will confirm.

However, if we does break above 1.6256 I will move the ending point of wave D to the new high. Even though E-waves of triangles can be sub-normal I do think that the consolidation we have seen since the top at 1.6256 will be unproportional small in respect to the prior wave D.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for November 27 - 2013

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 138.23

R2: 138.12

R1: 138.03

Current Spot: 137.92

S1: 137.60

S2: 137.10

S3: 136.60

Technical Summary:

As expected important support at 137.02 protected the downside for a new high at 138.03. The wave structure of this last rally from 137.10 does not look complete yet, therefore I expect support at 137.60 to protect the downside for one last marginal new high just above 138.03 likely in the 138.12 - 138.23 area before the final top of wave v of 5 is in place and a major correction towards at least 124.94 will take place. A break above resistance at 138.30 will question this count for the ending diagonal, as a break above 138.30 will make wave iii the shortest wave and that is not allowed under the Elliott Wave Principle.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6684

R2: 1.6636

R1: 1.6592

Current Spot: 1.6586

S1: 1.6521

S2: 1.6487

S3: 1.6462

Technical Summary:

The wave iv correction fell short of its ideal corrective target near 1.6344 and found its bottom already at 1.6380. Wave v higher towards 1.6739 is now developing. Short term I'm looking for a minor set-back towards 1.6521 before a clear break above 1.6592 confirms the next rally higher towards 1.6636 and the expected wave v target at 1.6739. Only a break below 1.6380 will invalidate this count and call for a decline closer to 1.6344, but it will take a break below 1.6259 to invalidate the above count altogether and bring the alternative count in to play.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for November 26 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 138.30

R2: 137.99

R1: 137.58

Current Spot: 137.33

S1: 137.02

S2: 136.60

S3: 136.02

Technical Summary:

After a high at 137.99 yesterday, we have seen a correction towards the important support at 137.02, but as long as this support protects the downside we should be looking for one last rally to a new high just above 137.99, but not beyond 138.30. As a break above 138.30 will make wave iii the shortest wave and that is not allowed under the Elliott Wave Principle. That means from just above 137.99 or upon a break below 137.02 we should be looking for a major correction towards at least 124.74.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6498

R2: 1.6457

R3: 1.6412

Current Spot: 1.6382

S1: 1.6341

S2: 1.6298

S1: 1.6259

Technical Summary:

The correction from 1.6636 has become deeper than expected and that opens up the case of an alternative count (see the chart below). I still prefer the bullish Count, that I presented yesterday, but the break below support at 1.6458 has opened up for a deeper correction towards 1.6341, which will ideally protect the downside for a break above 1.6457 confirming a new rally towards 1.6636 and beyond. Under the preferred count we can under no circumstances allow a break below support at 1.6259. A break below 1.6259 will cause an overlap between wave i and wave iv, which is not allowed under the Elliott Wave Principle and that will cause a shift towards the alternative count below.

If the alternative count becomes the preferred Count. This count will call for a continuation lower towards 1.5831 in wave c of Y.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for November 25 - 2013

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 138.76

R2: 138.30

R1: 138.01

Current Spot: 137.76

S1: 137.33

S2: 137.02

S3: 136.60

Technical Summary:

We should be in the very last part of the ending diagonal. The maximum for this final wave v will be in the 138.21 - 138.31 depending on where the high of wave iii is placed. If we does see a break above 138.31, then the ending diagonal can not be the correct count as wave iii can never be the shortest wave and that would be the case here, if we does break above 138.31. However, for now we maintain the view, that an ending diagonal is developing and should be close to its maximum. To confirm that wave v is in place we need a break below 137.02 and more importantly a break below 136.02, which will confirm, that wave v is in place for a decline towards at least 124.96.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6636

R2: 1.6597

R1: 1.6523

Current Spot: 1.6487

S1: 1.6453

S2: 1.6397

S3: 1.6341

Technical Summary:

The decline from 1.7274 is one of the weirdest formation I have ever seen. However, when I look at the weekly chart I'm convinced, that it only was a X-wave in a much larger correction, which began from 1.4966 and should as a minimum test resistance at 1.9094, where we will find the 38.1% correction target of the decline from the 2.5773 top in early 2009 to the bottom at 1.4966 in mid-2012. However, to confirm that a new uptrend have begun I would like to see support at 1.6453 protect the downside for a new rally above 1.6636 and more importantly above 1.6726, which will confirm the new uptrend for a continuation higher towards 1.6882 and higher. 

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/USD; USD/JPY; Gold and Crude Oil

I'm back! We had a very nice and relaxing trip to Turkey. We saw a lot and enjoyed the great hospitality of the Turkish people. It's nice to be back and I hope you have enjoyed some nice Trading opportunities.

EUR/USD

My preferred Count shows, that wave E of the huge B-wave triangle that have been forming since 2009 ended at 1.3832 in late October, but for this Count to be right we need resistance in the 1.3627 - 1.3675 area to protect the upside for a break below 1.3295 and more importantly below 1.3105, which will confirm that a new impulsive decline has begun. However. until the break below 1.3295 we have to be aware, that the decline from 1.3832 could be an other X-wave and one last rally in wave Z could be seen.

USD/JPY

The triangle breakout towards the upside, has been confirmed by the break above the D-wave high at 100.22 and we should now see a continuation higher over the coming weeks towards 106.50.
Short term I'm looking for green wave iii to move higher towards at least 101.71 and maybe even higher towards 103.06, but that is less likely. Only a break below 99.75 will invalidate the above Count.

Gold

 

The triangle Count could still be alive, but we could also be looking at an ending diagonal as wave five lower. It's still to early to tell, but I think it's safe to say, that we shall see more downside before the decline from 1,920.74 is finally over.



Crude Oil

I'm still looking for blue wave C to develop lower towards 77.40 and maybe slightly lower towards 74.89 before the next attempt higher should be seen. Currently we are in wave iii of 3 lower towards 89.93. This final wave C could either fall short of its ideal target or it could overshoot its downside target, so we just will have to keep a close Count as wave C develops.

Vacation time

It's time for relax after some long hard weeks of work (not with the blog), but at my daytime job. This time the trip goes to Turkey and Pamukkale or the mountain or castle of cotton as they call it.

I will be back on Friday the 22 of November.

Take care out there and trade carefully...

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for November 13 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 135.50

R2: 134.95

R1: 134.24 

Current Spot: 133.73

S1: 133.60

S2: 133.15

S3: 132.91 

Technical Summary:

The facts, that we did not see a break below 131.12 and saw an unexpected break above 133.73 has revived the ending diagonal formation and is calling for one final rally above 135.50 towards 137.47 and maximum 138.17 (wave iii can not be the shortest wave and that would be the case if we does see a break above 138.17).

 Short term I will be looking for a move closer to 134.24 followed by a correction towards 133.60 and maybe even lower towards 132.91 before the next rally higher.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6488

R2: 1.6429

R1: 1.6387

Current Spot: 1.6338

S1: 1.6302

S2: 1.6223

S3: 1.6113

Technical Summary:

With the break above 1.6422 I have had to change my count slightly. Instead of a one-two/one-two count I have to assume, that red wave i has become the extended wave and we should now look for wave iii and v to be smaller waves of nearly the same size. The ideal target for this correction is still the same at 1.5525.

Short term a break below 1.6302 will indicate, that red wave ii is over for a decline towards 1.5913 and lower towards 1.5822 before a small flat correction should be expected. However, as long as support at 1.6302 protects the downside we could see more upside first, but the odds for this outcome is not the best.

Elliott wave analysis of USD/JPY and NZD/USD

USD/JPY

Has broken above the triangle resistance-line and all we need now is a break above 100.61 to confirm that a thrust out of the triangle is developing in the final red wave V higher towards 106.50.

NZD/USD

Is just about to break below the S/H/S top neckline at 0.8190 and a break below here will call for a decline towards 78.46 as wave d of the longer term triangle.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for November 12 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 134.24

R2: 133.73

R1: 133.44

Current Spot: 133.25

S1: 132.91

S2: 132.21

S3: 131.50 

Technical Summary:

Well the rally of the 131.20 low has become larger than expected, but then second waves are allowed to correct all of the first wave, however, the second wave can never break beyond the starting point of the first wave, which is at 133.73. It is most likely that we have already seen the end of red wave ii at 133.44, but we need a break below 133.21 and more importantly a break below support at 132.91 to confirm that red wave ii is indeed over and red wave iii lower towards at least 129.35 has begun.

Only a break above 133.73 will invalidate our bearish count and cal for a more complex wave ii correction.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6488

R2: 1.6422 

R1: 1.6320

Current Spot: 1.6267

S1: 1.6228

S2: 1.6114

S3: 1.6035 

Technical Summary:

The break above resistance at 1.6294 has forced me to a new short term count, but my overall bearish expectations is still intact. However, the break above 1.6294 has also opened up more possible counts and the one above is my preferred count. For this count to stay valid resistance at 1.6422 may not be broken. 

I'm currently looking for a break below 1.6228 to confirm, that blue wave ii is over and that blue wave iii lower towards at least 1.5812 is developing. Longer term I'm looking for wave A and the ongoing C wave to be equal in length, which would call for a wave C target at 1.5525.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for November 11 - 2013

 EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 132.99

R2: 132.76

R1: 132.57

Current Spot: 132.27

S1: 131.89

S2: 131.58

S3: 131.20 

Technical Summary:

Wave 1 or A ended with the test of 135.51 and we have now started a correction of wave 1 or A in wave 2 or B, As a minimum I'm looking for a correction towards 124.92, where wave 2 or B would have corrected 23.6% of wave 1 or B. However, it is more likely, that the ongoing correction corrects 38.2% of wave 1 or A, which would call for a decline towards 119.70. As the decline from 135.51 has been in five wave we will be looking for a zig-zag correction lower, but corrections can undertake many different patterns, which makes them hard to read from time to time.

Short term I expect resistance near 132.76 for a break below 131.89 and more importantly a break below support at 131.50 which calls for an acceleration lower towards at least 128.42 and likely even lower to 125.76 as red wave iii extends.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6294

R2: 1.6223

R1: 1.6190

Current Spot: 1.6137

S1: 1.6036

S2: 1.5917

S3: 1.5821

Technical Summary:

We are currently in wave c of a major correction which began from 1.7274, the ideal target for this correction is at 1.5525, where wave c will be equal in length to wave a. Looking at the structure of wave c from 1.6726 it looks as we already has four sub-waves in place and that would mean, that red wave v will be an extended wave. A break below 1.6036 will indicate, that red wave v is developing for a decline towards at least 1.5724 and likely even lower towards 1.5525. However as long as support at 1.6036 protects the downside we could see a move closer to 1.6190 before lower.

Welcome to Twitter - What is in store after the sucessful IPO?

Twitter

Has only been Trading for two days, but I think we have the first clue to the Trading for the coming days/weeks.

The IPO Price was at USD 26.00 so a rally to 50.09 does send you back to the happy days before year 2000. However looking at the first two Trading days we had a shooting star on the first Trading day confirm by a new decline on the second Trading day. That calls for a continuation lower for the coming days/weeks. The possible target? Well we have a large gap from 26 to 44 and that gap should likely be closed, so a target near 26 is a qualified guess in my view. As the data builds up we will know more, but for now it's lower towards 26.

I don't have any long term data on Twitter yet, but hope to obtain some asap, to get an idea of how Twitter was Trading before the IPO. If anyone has access to price data going back 2-3 years I will appreciate if you will send them to me, so I can make a more inform call than the above.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for Novemeber 8 - 2013

EUR/JPY

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 132.46

R2: 132.17

R1: 131.79

Current Spot: 131.58

S1: 131.20

S2: 130.88

S3: 130.55

Technical Summary:

With the break below important support at 132.37 my bullish call for one last rally higher to 137.05 was invalidated and at the same time told us, that wave v of 5 of I is already over and the wave II towards at least 125.74 is well under way. A decline to 125.74 will only have corrected 23.6% of wave I, which would be a sub-normal correction, but we can not rule out this possibility. However, a more normal correction would call for a decline towards the correction-zone between 118.70 and 119.70, where wave II will have corrected 38.2% of wave I.

Short term we have seen a break below the base-channel, which indicates, that wave iii of A is developing. Wave iii is normally the strongest and most powerful wave and we should expect extension during this wave and an extension will call for a wave iii decline towards at least 128.58.

EUR/NZD

Today's Support and Resistance Levels:

R3: 1.6289

R2: 1.6241

R1: 1.6187

Current Spot: 1.6096

S1: 1.6077

S2: 1.6007

S3: 1.5913 

Technical Summary:

With the break below the invalidation point at 1.6016 I knew my bullish count was wrong and I have now adopted my alternate count as the preferred count. This count calls for a wave c of X lower towards 1.5525 before we can expect a new rally higher. 

Short term I expect resistance at 1.6187 to protect the upside for a break below 1.6027, which would call for a new test of 1.5913 on the way lower towards 1.5525. However, if we does see a break above 1.6187 we should secondary resistance at 1.6241 protect the upside for a new decline. A break above 1.6241 will be very frustrating, but only a break above 1.6349 will prove this count to be wrong.