Elliott wave analysis of GBP/USD

GBP/USD Monthly

GBP/USD Daily

 

 

We have seen a new high here, but have that changed my count?

 

No I still is looking for wave E of the triangle to take over soon for a decline towards at least 1.5854. We should expect to see strong resistance near 1.6405 protect the upside for a break below 1.6257 confirming, that wave D is over and wave E is developing.

 

Only a break above the top of wave B at 1.6747 will invalidate the above Count and indicate, that the huge B-wave triangle already has finished and wave C towards 1.9339 is developing.



Elliott wave analysis of GBP/USD

GBP/USD

My preferred Count is shown above. We ended a major wave 4 triangle in early January 2013 and have since seen wave 1 and 2 of the final thrust lower. We are currently in wave ii of 3 and I expect this ongoing wave ii to end near 1.5435, where wave ii will have corrected a little over 61.8% of wave i. Once this wave ii of 3 is over we should see a powerful decline in wave iii of 3 towards 1.3886 and possibly even lower, but only time will tell.

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/USD

GBP/USD

Wave i of 3 went from the high of 1.5752 down to 1.4858 and we saw wave ii of 3 in an expanded flat correction up to 1.5221 and we should now be ready for wave iii of 3 lower towards 1.4334 and more likely wave iii of 3 will extend (after an expanded flat correction always expect an extension) its decline towards 1.3783, where wave iii will be 1.618 times wave i).

Short term we could see 1.5147 and maybe even 1.5164 before the next decline sets in, but under no circumstance can a break above 1.5221 be allowed as that would call for a continuation higher towards 1.5304 before wave ii of 3 is over.