When strong short term resistance at 126.91 was broken we knew, that we need a rally towards 128.28 before the next attempt to break below strong support at 124.96 will be seen. We have seen a test of 128.11 till now, and as long as support at 127.23 protects the downside I expect, that we will see one last rally higher to 128.28 before the next decline sets in. However, a break below 127.23 and more importantly a break below 126.91 will confirm, that we already has terminated the correction from 124.96 and a new test of this important support should be seen. Longer term I'm still looking for a break below 124.96 for a decline towards my ideal target near 118.73, where wave 2 will have corrected 38.2% of wave 1.
We are currently in black wave v higher from the 1.6388 low. Since the low at 1.6388 we have seen an impulsive rally to 1.6825, which marks red wave i and we are currently in red wave ii, which I expect needs one last decline to just below 1.6669 before the next rally higher towards at least 1.7109 and more likely higher towards 1.7372 in an extension in red wave iii. As long as short term resistance at 1.6825 protects the upside we are expecting the decline towards 1.6669, but a break above 1.6825 indicates, that red wave iii is already under way higher.
What you expect to happen after the end of 5 wave in black and finished C in EUR/NZD?In your post http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2013/03/long-term-elliott-wave-analysis-of.html you say that we have a large flat correction,should not we have impuls wave after that?
ReplyDeleteBest Regards!!!
Hi Diversanta,
ReplyDeleteAt first I expected an impulsive rally higher, but the expanding triangle has forced we to view the current rally as corrective in nature. That said, in the very large picture this ongoing rally will be an X-wave, which should be followed by a new three wave decline once it's finished, but it could take years before this X-wave will finish and it could well take us all the way to 2.50 before it's over so we don't have to rush things.
You also asked me what I expect once black wave v is over? I expect a three wave correction as an X-wave and then a new three wave rally higher to follow. It's all about degree here.
So the conclusion will be something like this. A rally towards 1.7640 in black wave C. Followed by a three wave correction to the downside and then a new three wave rally higher to follow.
Kind regards
EWS