As we broke above resistance at 129.34 the only line of defence we had back was the falling channel resistance-line near 129.90. This resistance-line has so far protected the upside and I'm now looking for a break below important support at 128.09 to confirm that the next decline towards strong support at 124.96 is developing. But what if we break above resistance at 129.90? In my eyes, that would indicate an even more complex correction is developing. I have not given up on my ideal target at 118.73, where wave 2 will have corrected 38.2% of wave 1. One thing is for sure, I do not think that the correction from 133.81 has taken long enough. Until now it has taken about four weeks and I expected to take 4 - 8 weeks more.
We saw a new top at 1.7113 yesterday, so from an Elliott Wave Perspective we now have a five wave rally since the 1.5080 low. That does not mean I think this rally is over, but we are for sure moving closer to the point in time, where we should expect a bigger correction. As an minimum for this rally, I expect to see 1.7162, where black wave v will be 38.2% of the distance traveled from the bottom of black wave i to the top of black wave iii. However, it is more likely that we will see a continuation higher towards 1.7400, where black wave v will be 50% of that distance and lastly it could move towards 1.7640, where black wave v will have traveled 61.8% of that distance. Which target is more likely? I think that the 1.7640 target is the most likely target, but from now on a top can be put in at any time. So it's important to protect ourself the best we can. For now such potection would be a stop at 1.6820, which is just below the top of red wave i.
Hi EWS great analysis this week had some nice shorts this week from falling trend line eurjpy dont like Fridays much to choppy see what the big picture is Monday
ReplyDeleteHave a great weekend Best Regards jt
Hi JT,
ReplyDeleteThank you very much and a great weekend to you too.
I'm glad you had some nice hits. Yes let's take a re-match next week.
Kind regards
EWS
Hi!
ReplyDeleteIn your last analisies of eurusd and gbpusd you told that eurousd wil down and gbpusd will rise above 1.60 and eurus dowm.eurousd it was the pair that you thougt it can disapoint . So at end of friday day the pair that went against your analisies was gbpusd!! your analisies about gbpusd is intact?
Hi Zink,
DeleteI think you are jumping to conclusions on my behalf.
I didn't say that EUR/USD could not fall and I did'nt say, that GBP/USD couldn't fall.
If you look at my long term GBP/USD and if the B-wave triangle is the correct analysis, then you would and should expect much more consolidation as we at best just have ended wave d and need wave e lower.
If you look at my EUR/USD analysis I haven't change my analysis expecting lower EUR/USD, what I said was if one of my analysis where wrong, then I suspected it would be EUR/USD, but that is not the same as saying it is wrong.
I also said, that it's entirly possible, that you could see EUR/USD Falling at the same time as GBP/USD was rising. So
only time will tell if any of them is wrong and which might be wrong.
So nothing has changed in my view. I'm still looking for EUR/USD lower. I'm looking for GBP/USD in a sideways consolidation as a possible B-wave triangle, but if we break below 1.4227 then we know it's a wave 4 triangle and my GBP/USD analysis was wrong.
Kind regards
EWS