We are currently in a wave 2 correction, correction the entire rally from the 94.10 low to the 133.81 high. I expect this correction to correct 38.2% of wave 1, which will give us an ideal target near 118.73. We are currently in the middle of this correction and I'm looking for important resistance at 127.01 to protect the upside for a break below 126.13, which will confirm a new test of strong the neck-line support at 124.96 and a break here will accelerate the decline towards my ideal target 118.73. However, if important short term resistance at 127.01 gives away, we need a move higher to 128.28 before we can expect the next part of this decline.
With the break above important short term resistance at 1.6590 we had the confirmation we needed to say, that we did see the bottom of wave iv at 1.6388 and wave v higher towards the ideal target near 1.7640 is now developing. Short term we now find support at 1.6651 and strong support at 1.6595, which ideally will hold for the next rally higher towards my next targets 1.6913 and 1.6983, but they should just be small bumps on the way higher towards our ideal target near 1.7640.
I'd be very interested to see your analysis of what appears to be a Gravestone Doji from the descending trendline on the NIKKEI Monthly Chart and what you think it means for the other markets.
ReplyDeleteHi, I'm not sure if you've seen my comment on you eur usd and gbp usd post from yesterday. I'd appreciate f you could take a look, one of your eur usd, gbp usd and eur gbp preferred counts seems wrong, I'd like to know which one you find most probable. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteHi Alastair,
ReplyDeleteI will take a closer look at the Nikkei index later.
Kind regards
EWS
Hi Jazz
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure, that any of my analysis of EUR/USD and GBP/USD is wrong.
I don't think there is anything wrong with EUR/USD falling and GBP/USD moving higher. I'm sure if you go back in time you will find several occassions where this has been the case.
However, if one of the analysis is wrong I think the odds is a bit greater, that it's EUR/USD that's wrong, but I will wait for the market to show me which is wrong and not take anything for granted.
Regarding EUR/GBP it could just be a question of which of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pair that moves fastest and all three could be right.
But again if one is wrong I do beleive EUR/USD is the one to prove wrong, but only time will tell.
Kind regards
EWS
Here's what I meant: mid to longer term - your EUR/USD count is that it will go down, your GBP/USD count is that it will go up and your EUR/GBP count is that it will go up. That's what I understood from your posts. I don't see how EUR/GBP can go up if EUR/USD goes down and GBP/USD goes up.
ReplyDeleteHi Jazz,
ReplyDeleteIt's Just a question of speed. Which cross moves the fastest. If EUR/USD falls a Little faster than GBP/USD rises, then EUR/GBP will go up.
Or if GBP/USD is in a triangle consolidation and EUR/USD falls then EUR/GBP will go up too.
Or if I'm wrong in one of my Counts. In this case it would be GBP/USD.
It's all about speed and we don't know how the speed-outcome will be, but as long as we just do our job well and know when we are wrong then it really doesn't matter.
However, if you are interested in EUR/GBP, then don't try to figur out, what's going to happen in EUR/USD and GBP/USD as that will be a game you Loose.
Kind regards
EWS