Elliott wave analysis of Gold and Silver - Still more downside to come?

 Gold

Please see my long term count here (you have been able to see this count since June 1 - 2012 by clicking my long term gold-count to the right): http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.dk/2012/06/gold-is-shine-about-to-disappear.html

I know, that the long term count shows a finished five wave rally of the 1999 low at 253.10 and the above chart only shows, that wave 3 is in place. Which is right? I simply don't know and it really doesn't matter for know. We will find out soon enough, but there is no need to try to figure it out as the downside should get all your attention.

There is good chance the we saw the bottom of red wave iii this week and we should now enter a corrective mode for the next couple of weeks as red wave iv progress, but once red wave iv is over we should see more downside action.

I still see a lot of analysts calling the bottom, but I don't think we are even close... Yes maybe close to a minor bottom, but not the one most are calling for.

There should be no doubt that the rally from 681.10 to 1,920.74 was an extended wave 5 and R.N. Elliott said, that an extended Fifth wave would find support near the low of wave two of the extension and in my view that would be near 864.50. That said we must accept the possibility of a low near the top of wave two of the extension and that would call for a bottom near 1,006.20.

Could I be wrong? Yes of cause as we currently is in the range of red wave two of the extension from 1,043.90, but I don't think this is the correct way to interpreter R.N. Elliott. However, time will show which is right and we just will have to stay flexible.   

Silver

Here too I think, that we have seen the bottom of red wave iii and red wave iv will develop over the coming weeks, but once this red wave iv is over we shall see more downside action.

There is no way I can count the rally of the 2001 low at 4.00 as a five wave rally. Therefore I have labeled the rally since the 2001 low at 4.00 as a corrective A-B-C rally.

I will be looking for a bottom in the 12.09 - 13.14 area, which should be followed but a new major rally, but for now we should still stay focused towards the downside.