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Monday, June 3, 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD

It is great to be back. I can see that we only need a slight change to our EUR/JPY picture. Hope you all have been well.


EUR/JPY

Since my last update on May 24, we have seen a sideways consolidation in what seems to be a b-wave triangle. That of cause means that the road-map I put up has to be changed a bit, but the overall outcome will be the same. I'm still looking for an immediately breakdown if form of a break below 130.19, which will call for a decline towards at least 128.25 and more likely a continuation down to 125.87. As the road-map has been changed we will have to accept the possibility of a much more complex correction unfolding from the 133.81 high, but only time will show how we get down to 118.73.

EUR/NZD

Once resistance at 1.6040 was overcome we saw the expected acceleration higher and there should be much more to come. We are currently close to the top of green wave iii, which is expected to come in at 1.6418, but after a small correction down to 1.6205 we should see the next swing higher to 1.6481 and beyond. However remember, that we are in wave iii of 3 and correction tend to be small and even sub-normal so don't expect to much in form of the corrections.

12 comments:

  1. HI T

    Welcome Back
    I am not trading eur/yen whant I want to ask you that in eur/usd the mini triangle that you mentioned in your previous count has been finished with the touch of 1.3061 with 38.2% is just 10 pips away at 1.3071 and if you would like for a short entry that where would like to enter with a break of 1.2790 or may be 1.2890

    Thanks and regards for you tremendous anaylysis

    ReplyDelete
  2. Great to see you back EWS hope you had a wonderful time on your break.

    Best Regards jt

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi EWS:

    I hope you had seemed nice Barcelona..It's a pretty city. I think it's one of the best tonws in Spain. The other one is San Sebastian

    Regards

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Aman,

    I think that a break below 1.2944 should do the job for you and confirm that a new test of strong support at 1.2800 and a break below here will confirm a much deeper decline.

    If you are even more aggressive you could sell a break below 1.3000 with a close stop at 1.3030 and more safe stop at 1.3065

    Kind regards
    EWS

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi JT and Manuel,

    Thank you very much.

    I had a really woderful time in Barcelona and enjoyed every second of my vacation.

    I agree with you Manuel Barcelona is a rally beautiful town with lots to see. I have never been to San Sebastian, but will keep that in mind till next time I of to Spain.

    Kind regards
    EWS

    ReplyDelete
  6. Great to see you back EWS hope you had a wonderful vacation!!! Barcelona is a lovely city.Would you say something about EUR/GBP?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Diversanta,

      I will take a look at EUR/GBP tomorrow and make a post on my findings.

      Kind regards
      EWS

      Delete
  7. Hi EWS,
    Welcome back. Do you think SPWR completed an extended 5th wave of 1 if the the price drops below the 18.00 trendline?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Todd,

      That possibility is still not my preferred Count. I still think we are in wave 3 finishing wave iv of 3 and will be looking for a rally towards 25.08 to end wave 3.

      However we need a break above 19.65 to confirm, that wave iv is over and wave v of 3 is Building for a rally higher towards 25.08.

      Kind regards
      EWS

      Delete
  8. Thanks EWS,
    But what is significant about 19.65? The high today was 19.50. I can't find any reason why 19.65 would be signicant.
    Todd

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Todd,

      The reason why I think 19.65 is significant in the short term is, that a break above here would be the first tiny break of the lower Highs lower Lows, but it would of cause be more imopatnat if we would see a break above 20.90.

      Hope that explains my reason for choosing 19.65 as the first indication, that a bottom might be in place for the next rally higher.

      Kind regards
      EWS

      Delete