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Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; Gold, Silver and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - After the low at 133.61 we are currently building wave iv higher towards the 137.11 to 137.88 area. It could even rally towards 139.21, but that is not favored at this point.
Short term a break above 135.77 will confirm the move higher towards 137.11.

Gold - After a scary move all the way down to 1,539.49 I'm now looking for a break above 1,662.89 which will be first strong sign, that red wave iv is over and that we have begund red wave v of 5 up.
At this point only a break below 1,503 will cause concern and force me to reconcider my preferred count in favor of a more bearish count, that has the wave 5 top in place at 1,919.49.


Silver - After the decline to 26.04 just below the ideal wave iv of 5 target area between 26.37 - 26.67. We have seen a new rally above 30.86, which is first good indication, that wave v of 5 has begun. This wave v of 5 should ideally reach 53.36.


Crude Oil - Is correcting in wave ii of 5. We now have the first signs that "Hidden Divergence" is seen. Hidden Divergence is seen when the price is rising of falling, but not making a new extrem, while the MACD-Indicator to the contrary is making a new extrem. This Hidden Divergence normally results in a very aggressive move in the direction of the main trend, which in this case is to the downside.

I still look for a move towards my target area near 72, when this wave ii correction is done.







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