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Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; Gold, Silver and Copper and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - We are looking at a short term correction to the downtrend. Short term we could see a move higher towards 137.46 and maybe even up to the 138.23 - 138.35 area, but the trend is down and longer term we should see a move down below 123.28 in wave [C].


Gold - We have seen the test of the neck-line (purple) and for now it's holding firm, but sooner or later I do expect it will break for a move lower towards the 1,667 area.

Short term we will see resistance in the 1,842 - 1,844 area.


Silver - (no wave count here) Yesterday we saw a break below the support-line at 40.07, but we closed back in the trading range. I do expect more downside pressure, but we need a break below 40.07 to confirm the breakout. Normally the move following a breakout of a pennat like this is usually very powerful.


Copper - (No wave count here too) Is a little like Silver. We saw a test of important support yesterday and if support at 388.90 breaks we should see a very powerful move to the downside here too. However as long as support at 388.90 stays firm the uptrend is intact, but copper need to regain 402 to give a more neutral look and 417 to force a new test of the resistance-line at 446.


Crude Oil - Support at 84.92 held once again for a reaction back, but it should only be a question of time before this support-line is tested again and the next test to break below should be successful. Only a break above 90.22 will invalidate my bearish count.

Longer term I look for a decline to my target near 72.

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