Elliott wave analysis on Silver

Silver

CJ asked me about Silver and if a triangle was developing. The answer to that is yes it is a triangle. It could be a b-wave triangle calling for a little more upside action before the next decline. However, I do think it's more likely, that this is a wave iv triangle calling for the final thrust Down in blue wave v, but that does not make the next low the final low. We will see more downside action and we will also soon have the final decision on whether the major rally from 4.00 in 2001 to 49.79 in 2011 (nice 10 year rally) was just a major corrective rally or it will develop into an impulsive rally. All odds favor the corrective scenario at this point.

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; Gold, Silver and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - After the low at 133.61 we are currently building wave iv higher towards the 137.11 to 137.88 area. It could even rally towards 139.21, but that is not favored at this point.
Short term a break above 135.77 will confirm the move higher towards 137.11.

Gold - After a scary move all the way down to 1,539.49 I'm now looking for a break above 1,662.89 which will be first strong sign, that red wave iv is over and that we have begund red wave v of 5 up.
At this point only a break below 1,503 will cause concern and force me to reconcider my preferred count in favor of a more bearish count, that has the wave 5 top in place at 1,919.49.

Silver - After the decline to 26.04 just below the ideal wave iv of 5 target area between 26.37 - 26.67. We have seen a new rally above 30.86, which is first good indication, that wave v of 5 has begun. This wave v of 5 should ideally reach 53.36.

Crude Oil - Is correcting in wave ii of 5. We now have the first signs that "Hidden Divergence" is seen. Hidden Divergence is seen when the price is rising of falling, but not making a new extrem, while the MACD-Indicator to the contrary is making a new extrem. This Hidden Divergence normally results in a very aggressive move in the direction of the main trend, which in this case is to the downside.

I still look for a move towards my target area near 72, when this wave ii correction is done.

Silver still working on wave iv of 5

Already in July I had a post saying we where working on wave iv of 5. See the post here
http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/07/silver-working-on-wave-iv-of-5.html

We are still working on that same wave iv, but we can now say more about, which target we are most likely headed for. That target is in the 26.37 to 26,67 area. In this area we see multiple important supports coming in. At 26.67 we have the 50% retracement of the entire rally from 3.51 to 49.51. At 26.60 wave b of iv will be equal in length as wave a of iv and finally at 26.37 will find the 66% retracement of the rally from 14.63 to 49.51.
So the area between 26.37 and 26,67 should be a formidable support area posing the best opportunity for the final wave v higher towards 53.36.

Silver - Working on wave iv of 5

Please see my post from May 2 first:
http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/05/gold-and-silver-ready-for-next-leg.html

The picture in silver hasn't change that much since my May 2 update. We are still working on wave iv, which I still expect to reach the 29-30 area and possible even the 25-26 area (the pink box), from where we should see the last wave higher towards the 52-53 area. Be aware that a break above the 49.51 top will increase the risk of a major top dramatic.

Please notice that we don't have divergence on my proprietary indicator or the MACD-forest indicator. That said divergence is not a necessity. Take a look at the monthly chart below of Crude oil. When oil topped in July 2008 neither my proprietary indicator nor MACD-forest showed and divergence. This is the case when you see extension in wave v of 5, therefore we can't exclude the possibility that we already have seen a major top in silver, but to confirm that we need to See a break below 19.43 (the top of wave i).

Silver - In a moon shot

Silver is on it's way to the moon or at least so i seems. Yes the US economy is in bad shape. The Euro-zone doesn't look to good either, but can the rocket keep its momentum going? No way, there is a limit! The only question is where...

Let me start by saying that I will not stand in front of this rocket, but through the Elliott wave priciple I at least have a the possibility to make a qualified assumtion where the top might be.

Looking at the monthly chart above, I will say we are in wave 5 in the rally that started at 3.51 in February 1991. Silver is a commodity and we know, that the longest wave in a impulsive rally in commodities happens in wave 5, which is exactly what we are seeing. Wave 5 is about to end wave iii. I would expect a top near here as wave iii of 5 already is longer than 2.618 times wave i of 5. that should be followed by a wave iv and then the final fifth wave towards 53.36 where wave 5 will be 1.618 times longer than wave 3.

We will have to see what happens, but one thing is for sure... This rally will end!