EUR/USD - Made it to resistance at 134.00, The rejection here and the following decline to me confirms the bearish picture. I'm now looking for a break below 132.70 to confirm the next serious test of the support at 132.10.Longer term I'm still looking for a much deeper decline through 131.40 for a move towards 128.63.
USD/JPY - The rally towards the red down-trendline resistance near 78.95 still looks very healthy. Longer term I look for a break above this trendline, which would confirm, that an important bottom is in place with the test of 75.55 and a rally back to 115.00 has begun.
GBP/USD - I have added GBP/USD (Cable) today as we are closing in on very important support near 153.45 and a break below here will trigger a thrust out of the big triangle, which has been building since January 2009. The target for this thrust down will be near the 119 - 120 area.
S&P 500 - We have now tested resistance near 1,198.50. The big question is whether this was wave c of an expanded flat or this only was wave a and we have one more rally to go, when wave b comes to an end. I prefer the expanded flat count, which calls for renewed pressure to the downside from here. However a break above 1,198.50 will add more credence to the simple zig-zag count an call for a move higher towards the 1,215 area.
Gold - Seems to have ended its minor wave iv and is ready to challenge support near the 1,635 - 1,640 area. If this support breaks we can expect a much bigger decline.
S&P 500 - We have now tested resistance near 1,198.50. The big question is whether this was wave c of an expanded flat or this only was wave a and we have one more rally to go, when wave b comes to an end. I prefer the expanded flat count, which calls for renewed pressure to the downside from here. However a break above 1,198.50 will add more credence to the simple zig-zag count an call for a move higher towards the 1,215 area.
Gold - Seems to have ended its minor wave iv and is ready to challenge support near the 1,635 - 1,640 area. If this support breaks we can expect a much bigger decline.Short term a break below 1,699 should be the first minor trigger for a move lower towards support.
Copper - I have added Copper too today. as the long term picture soon could turn very ugly. As can be seen on the chart above. we have been in a long term uptrend since 2001, which ended with the failure break above the upper channel resistance-line at 410 in late 2010.
Crude Oil - The picture above for Copper also go hand in hand with my longer term view for Crude Oil, which is also clearly down.
Copper - I have added Copper too today. as the long term picture soon could turn very ugly. As can be seen on the chart above. we have been in a long term uptrend since 2001, which ended with the failure break above the upper channel resistance-line at 410 in late 2010. My preferred count is that we have seen a major [A] - [B] - [C] correction, where wave [A] and [C] was equal in length and wave [B] an expanded flat. We can also see a possible S/H/S top building and a break below the neckline at 318 will trigger a big decline towards the 171 area.
If this scenario plays out Dr. Copper also spells big trouble for the economy ahead.
Crude Oil - The picture above for Copper also go hand in hand with my longer term view for Crude Oil, which is also clearly down. Short term I think we saw wave ii end yesterday at 100.68, that also ended the right hand shoulder of a minor S/H/S top calling for a decline to the 86 area, but longer term we should see a break below important support near 77.85, which will trigger an even bigger S/H/S top. (see my post from yesterday here: http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/11/elliott-wave-analysis-on-eurusd-usdjpy_28.html).
However for now look for the red Pitchfork to define the decline.
hello sir
ReplyDeleteif crude oil broken 100.73, some upside is left ,its correct or wrong.
Hello Swami,
ReplyDeleteIf we break above 100.73 we will most likely see a continuation higher towards the 101.65 - 102 area, before a renewed pressure to the downside.
A break below 97.24 will confirm that the top is in and we should see the next decline towards 95 and lower.
Kind regards
EWS
thanks for your most valuable response for me
ReplyDelete