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Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - The failure to break below minor support at 134.20 is slightly dissapointing, but it hasn't change anything in the overall picture. We should soon face resistance again and a break below 134.20 should only be a question of time for the next decline towards the 133 area.


S&P 500 - It's not a pretty picture for the S&P 500 and a test of the all important neck-line support at 1,086 should be the next big hurdle. On the way down minro support should be seen at 1,183 and at 1,157.


Gold - As can be seen we are clearly in a long term uptrend, but the is a clear risk, that we have seen an important top at the 1,920. We saw a short term break above the channel-resistance line, which alway is a warning, that the prior trend is coming to an end. That said we might only have seen wave iii of 5 at 1,920 and as long as support at 1,600 and more importantly 1,534 hold firm, this possibility is obviouse. However a break below 1,600 will weaken the uptrend since 1999 and a break below 1,534 will call for a test of the channel-support line.


Crude oil - Odds still favor that a top is in place at 103.30, but we need resistance at 97.50 and more likely 100.14 to protect the upside for a break below 94.60, which will open up the downside for a move towards the 75 - 76 area.

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