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Friday, November 25, 2011

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; USD/JPY; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - We have now broken below the green Pitchfork support-line, which is the first warning, that a much deeper decline could be under way. We of cause need to see the break sustained, but if it is we should see a move towards 130.85.
Short term we will probably see a minor reaction back towards the break-point at 133.20 and we might even go as high as 134.10 again, before the next push to the downside.

USD/JPY - Are we in an a-b-c correction from 75.55 or are we in a new more powerful uptrend?
I suspect that we have seen a major bottom at 75.55 and should soon take out resistance at 79.51 for a continuation higher towards the 84.85 - 85.45 area.
Short term a break above 78.45 should do the trick.

S&P 500 - Thanksgiving did the S&P 500 good I can see... If my short term count is correct, we should see a reaction higher towards the 1,193 - 1,198.50 area, before the next decline towards neckline support at 1,083.
That said take care, we are in wave iii, which normally is the most powerful and correction can be very shallow.




Gold - It seems as we are developing a small wave iv triangle, which should resolve into a full-scale test of support at 1,635. If the triangle count is correct, support at 1,635 should hold for a correction higher to the 1,680 area before any new attempt to the downside could be seen.




Crude Oil - The neckline support is holding firm and could spark one more go at resistance near 98.65 in a flat correction, When this rally is done we should see a new attempt to break the neckline support for a much deeper decline.

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