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Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - Are we making a small triangle again or are we in a topping mode? The MACD-indicator is in a neutral position but clearly displaying divergence, which could be a warning that we are closing in on a top. To confirm a top we need a break below 138.47 and more importantly 136.55.
As long as supports holds we could see a move deeper into the 140 area.

S&P 500 - The firm rejection from the 61.8% retracement target near 1,258, the odds is clearly in favor of a test of support near 1,207. A break below here will be first indication, that a top is in place, but we need a break below 1,197 is needed to confirm the top for a decline towards 1,150.


Gold - has cleared resistance at 1,702, which is somewhat a surprise. It does call for a test of next resistance at 1,748. If this resistance breaks too, we should be looking for a new high above the August 22 high at 1,911. I still have an ideal target at 2,036 as the top of wave 5.

If however resistance at 1,748 holds we could see one last decline towards important support near 1,530.


Crude Oil - Has had a perfekt test of the 50% retracement target at 94.85. Looking at the MACD it doesn't look like it's ready to roll over yet, which could mean, that we will see a full test of the 61.8% retracement target at 99.57.

Only a clear break below 88.74 will ease the upside pressure and call for a move lower towards support at 84.66.

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