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Friday, October 14, 2011

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; S&P 500; Gold and Crude Oil

EUR/USD - We are still locked in the riseing channel from 131.44, but the latest price-action has taken a triangle shape. I don't regard this as a wave iv triangle (the count doesn't fit). I would go with the break whatever way it goes (I prefer the downside). A break below 137.40 would open for a decline towards 135.50 and possibly even 133.50.
A bréak above 138.10 will open for a move higer towards 139.32 before down again.

S&P 500 - We broke below the steep supportline, which is signal that wave A is over and wave B down towards the 1,147 - 1,150 area is ongoing. We could even see a decline towards the 1,124 - 1,130 area before the next rally higher in wave C.



Gold - Not much to add. I have move the minor trendline resistance from 1,920 a bit, but we still need this resistance-line to be broken to see the next rally higher towards 1,754 area.


The main risk as long as we are below the resistance-line is to the downside and a new test of support near 1,584.



Crude oil - we saw a short term break below 84, which has weakened the uptrend since 75. We can see a minor triangle shaped, which I think will be broken to the downside for a decline towards the 79 area. Strong resistance is at the trendline from 114.83 currently at 87.

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