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Sunday, October 2, 2011

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; Gold and Crude oil

EUR/USD - Lets take a view on the longer picture today.
The break below 135.18 on Friday opened up the downside again and we should see support at 133.61 give away very soon for a decline towards next support near 131.35 and perhaps slightly deeper towards the 128.63 area. A clear break below 128.63 will accelerate the decline the 124.60 area.

Gold - Do we have wave 5 in place or are still in red wave iv? If we are in red wave iv, then the only valid count is, that an expanding diagonal is developing and we should see one more towards 2,260 soon. If however we see a break below 1,500 and more importantly 1,478 we can conclude, that wave 5 is already in place and we should be looking for a much deeper decline towards at least 1,091.
As long as 1,500 holds firm I will be looking for a new rally higher through 1,640 and more importantly 1,668 to confirm the next move higher.


Crude Oil - We have clearly broken long term support and are headed lower in wave [C]. Wave C of [B] had a very nice symmetry to it and it seems as the current decline has its own symmetry to it too. We are declining and pausing in 5 weeks periods and we should now see the next new low in this sequence soon. The target is near the mid-line of the red Pitchfork, which next week will be around 71.60 area (just below med 72 target area).

Longer term I still looking for a break below the beginning of wave [B] at 32.40.

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