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Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Elliott wave analysis on EUR/USD; Gold and Crude Oil

Resistance at 136.93 pretty much held firm (the high was just 5 small pips above at 136.98).
The break back into the rising diagonal (wedge) tells us that a top is in place for a decline to at least the 133.44 - 133.56 area. This area marks both the bottom of wave iv of the rising diagonal and the 61.8% retracement of the rally since 131.44.
The big question is whether the test of 136.98 was the top of wave 2 or just wave a? Time will tell, but for now the downside is the way to look.

As I feared yesterday, the stronger resistance at 1,691 held and turned the price back below 1,676, which calls for a test of 1,636 at least. A break below 1,636 will open up for a new decline towards support at 1,584.
The MACD-indicator didn't look to healty, when we tested 1,691, which also is a concern.




I'm still looking for a rally closer to the 90 handle. The rally since 75 is most likely wave A of a zig-zag correction. If this is the case we are in the very beginning of wave B, which ideally should reach the 79 area, before the last rally towards the 90 handle.

Short term a break below 83.94 will confirm the move towards the 79 area.







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