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Thursday, December 9, 2010

S&P 500 - Has the roof been hit?

I still don't see the rally from early March 2009 to late April 2010 as a five wave rally. Yes you can count five leg, but looking at the internals between the legs, none of them look impulsive (at least not to me). The first rally went from 666.92 to 956.16 (289.24 points) and it's impossible to count a clear five wave rally. The first rally was followed by a minor decline to 869.52, correcting less than 10% of the first rally. The second rally went from 869,52 to 1,150.50 (280.98 points) again it's impossible to count a clear five wave rally and this rally is barely as long as the first rally. The correction from 1,150.50 finally corrected a fibonacci 38.2% of the rally from 869.52 to 1,150.50 ending at 1,056.59. The final rally from 1,056.59 went to 1,219.61 (163.02 points).

Therefore the above count is my best count (A double combination). Looking at the second part of the correction (the best fit is a Zig-Zag) wave C = 1.618*A at 1,232.53 (with a high at 1,234.95), this is an almost perfect hit. This could end the entire rally from 666.92, but the first demand would be a decline below 1,173.11.

What if we break clearly above 1,234.95 (say 1,247)? Then odds shifts towards a continuation higher to the 2007 top and slightly above (the second A-B-C will equal the first), in what might be a expanding triangle (see below).

Robert Prechter writes the folloing about "D" waves:

"D" waves — "D" waves in all but expanding triangles are often accompanied by increased volume. This is true probably because "D" waves in non-expanding triangles are hybrids, part corrective, yet having some characteristics of first waves since they follow "C" waves and are not fully retraced. "D" waves, being advances within corrective waves, are as phony as "B" waves. The rise from 1970 to 1973 was wave [D] within the large wave IV of Cycle degree. The "one-decision" complacency that characterized the attitude of the average institutional fund manager at the time is well documented. The area of participation again was narrow, this time the "nifty fifty" growth and glamour issues. Breadth, as well as the Transportation Average, topped early, in 1972, and refused to confirm the extremely high multiples bestowed upon the favorite fifty. Washington was inflating at full steam to sustain the illusory prosperity during the entire advance in preparation for the election. As with the preceding wave [B], "phony" was an apt description

As Prechter describes above. As then Washington is currently "inflating" at full steam, but this time thru Quantitative Easing.

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