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Thursday, December 30, 2010

DAX Index - Topping?

The German DAX-Index could be topping. On the weekly chart above the Stochastic indicator is rolling over in overbought territory. The long term Rate of Change indicator is still bullish, but this indicator is a lagging indicator, and it will never catch a top or bottom.

Looking at the rally since March 2009 bottom at 3,588.89 to the top last week at 7,087.84, there is some very interesting relationships. First the rally from 4,524.01(point "B") to 7,084,84 is almost 1,618 times longer than the rally from 3,588.89 to 5,177.59 (the exact point is 7,094.53).
Time wise the rally from point "B" to the end of this week has taken 76 weeks, which is 4.236 times longer than the rally from the beginning at point [A] to point B, which took 18 weeks.

A break below 6,657.98 is needed to confirm the top, but the evidence of a possible top is compelling.

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