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Tuesday, December 14, 2010

EUR/USD - What is this?

The break above 133.22 has confused the picture. I have to adobt the alternate count, that the decline from 142.81 is and A-B-C decline, but the minor rally from 129.64 does not look impulsive either, which leaves us with and A-B and C currently ongoing rally. Could the A-B-C from 129.64 be a wave 4? Yes it coulde be (see Infinitus count http://singulorum001.blogspot.com/2010/12/sorry-for-updating-my-charts-so.html, it's not my preferred count, but I'll leave the option open for now). If we are in wave 4, then the bottom of wave 1 at 135.71 can't be broken (overlap between wave 1 and 4 is not allowed under the Elliott wave priciple).

As long as the pink line, which I have drawn from the minor bottom at 131.82 is not broken I will be looking for a continuation higher towards 136.31, where wave C=A. From 136.31 or if the pink dotted line is broken to the downside, i'll shift fokus to the downside again.



My long term count is still bearish for the EUR (see the long term count below)



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