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Sunday, November 14, 2010

Topped or topping

FTSE 100 Topped or is topping

DAX topped or is topping

BOVESPA topped or is topping

SENSEX topped or is topping

All the above has either topped or is topping out. The BOVESPA (Brazil) and the SENSEX (India) is making a big flat correction (they can still turn into expanding flats, but it's less likely), while FTSE 100 and DAX looks more like Zig-Zags.
If FED's USD 600 billion isn't headed for the equity markets, where are they going? Commodities... Hmmm it doesn't look like it (The CRB Index, Gold, Silver, Oil and most soft commodities looks tried), But if they on the way to this market, we should see some kind of moon shot soon, with oil spiking towards USD 100 pr. barrel. Gold and Silver spiking higher as the "public" rushes into the only real currency thereby ending the 10 year rally. Finally softs will push higher in one last spike, hurting especially the Emerging Markets economies as we saw it in 2008. Pushing the global economic back into recession or worse.
The other place, where the money can go, is into the currency market as the bond market doesn't seem ideal either. If the USD 600 billion heads into the currency market, I would expect them to head for safe-haven currencies, not the high yielding currencies as most commodity currencies is.
I might be a little early on this call, but it depends where the money goes first. If it's to commodities first, then expect the collapse during the end of first quarter 2011. If however the tops is already in place then we are facing major trouble before X-mas.

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