In my post from October 27'th:(http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2010/10/audusd-we-should-see-one-more-new-high.html
I wrote that we where tracing out a flat correction (see the chart below). This flat correction evovled perfectly and we have made a new high for the five wave rally that began at 60.73 in November 2008. This rally is now in wave (v) of v of 5 and a top could be in place any time now.
I would wait for a five wave decline and sell the following three wave rally with a stop just above the start of wave 1 down. A break below 98.57 would be a very good clue, that an important top is in place.
You've got overlap of 1 and 4 in your 5th wave there...
ReplyDeleteThis is what's bothering me about the aussie count - the overlap of 1 and 4, and the lack of evidence for an ED, so that would mean it's more likely a 1-2, 1-2 up (meaning a fair bit more upside to come over the medium term)..
Any thoughts EWS?
Great post btw.
Hi Jem,
ReplyDeleteI do regard the overlap of wave 1 and 4 as the biggest problem of this count, as it's only allowed in ending diagonals and wave v has become very long.
That is the reason for not trying to pin-pointing the top, but wait for a five wave decline followed by a three wave rally with the stop just above the beginning of wave 1 down. before one should start selling AUD.
As you say we could be looking at a 1-2, i-ii count up, which means we are now in wave v of 3. If this is the case we should see a move towards 102.43 where wave v will equal wave i, and end wave 3 up calling for wave 4 down to the 96.50-97.00 area, before wave 5 up.
Best regards
EWS
EWS, thanks for your reply. I guess we are on the same page.
ReplyDeleteShould be an interesting few weeks/months!