Time for a little technical formation analysis

The "Cup with handle" formation is a pretty well known formation, with a good record. Below is two very fine examples of this formation. I have inverted the price scale to make it look like the templet, but this formation goes boths ways, but it just hader to deteced when it's upside down.

Some time ago I showed and Elliott wave count on EUR/CHF, but as can be seen a very nicely shaped "Cup with Handle" had been building since 2001 and was triggered going into 2010.

The first target for this formation has been fulfilled at 128, but it could very well move further down towards 125.65 and in its extrem 120.54.

Turning to my next example of this formation we have the EUR/JPY. Again I have inverted the price scale to see the formation better. The "cup with handle" formation was triggered with the break above the lip in mid May at 114.34. The absolute minimum target will be a move down 89.57 (remember the inverted scale - You will have to pay less JPY for the same EUR).

The extrem target for this formation would be near 59.13. I personaly would not bank on that target, but if one rides the trend it's nice to have a possibly long term target.

Finally a formation everybody knows or should know. The Shoulder - Head - Shoulder pattern.

In EUR/USD we have seen the S/H/S build since 2003 and was triggered with the break below 128.20 in early May. The long term target for this formation is just below the 92 handle.

When we break below 125.84, then we should not at any time see a break back above 129.18.

All of the above examples points in one direction - A much weaker EUR. LLooking at the speards between the 10Y German Government bond and the 10Y Irish, Greek, Portugise they now all is above the point when EU and IMF "saved" Greece and gave birth to the guarantee fund. Pointing towards distrust from the financial markets, that they will be able to solve their debt crisis. If this escalates much further then Spain will be draged into question too and Spains debt alone mounts to more than half of whats in the guarantee fund.

By the way the guarantee fund is only keept alive because of Germanys grace, if the back down from their commitment, then we can look into a fullscale hurrican in the Mediterranean Sea and over Irland...