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Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Gold - Close to a top?

The rally in gold has looked very suspicious for quiet some time now. The tricky part is the price action from late February 2009 to late August 2009 (see the red circle), it looks like a triangle (all waves are three waves affairs). Triangle only occurs in wave 4 or in B-waves. This is clearly no wave 4 triangle, which only leaves us with one alternative, which is that it's a B-wave triangle. That would make the entire rally since 680 a B-wave in an expanded flat correction.

If we look at the internal relationship of this B-wave, the wave c now equals wave a in length. We also have a very clear divergence on the MACD all pointing towards a top very soon for wave C down.

A break below 1,233 would be first indication that wave B is over and wave C down has begun.

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