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Tuesday, September 7, 2010

S&P 500 - Make it or break it!

The rally (wave 2) from 1,041.05 has become bigger than one would normal expect. Under The Elliott Wave Principle it's allowed to correct up to 99% of wave 1, but normally when it breaks above 78.6% the risk of a break above or below the start of wave 1 is seen.

The 78.6% retracement of wave 1 would be at 1,110.53, so the is a little more room to the upside, but it would be better if a top is already in place with the 1,105.04 high.
As long as 1,110.53 stays intact I will go with the wave 1 - 2 count, but a break above 1,110.53 will make the red Alternated count the preferred count.

So what's needed now is for 1,110.53 to hold and then see a break below 1,064.65, which add credence to the 1-2 count.

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