Charts of interest

Apple - I doesn't do much in single stocks, but I keep an eye on them and when Apple today reached new all time highs, I do think it's interesting to see, that my count suggest we are in the final part of the rally since 1997. Can we reach 450? Maybe, but I will focus on support at 353 a break below here will be the first serious warning that the top is in place.

Gold - In my daily analysis of gold, I have concluded that we are in a wave iv correction, but looking at the bigger picture we can see, that we are in the later part of the rally since 1999.

The tricky part here is, that we could very well see the last spike up as a run away moon shoot.

Any break below 1,478 will indicate, that the top is in place.

Copper - Has now clearly broken down from the rising channel, calling for a decline towards the 279 - 285 area. But more importantly the breakdown in Copper is telling us, that the global economy is weakening.

Corn - Is also looking weak after the break below 700. We could very well be looking at a Shoulder/Head/Shoulder top. This top-formation will be activated if the neckline at 620 is broken.

I count the rally from late 2008 as wave-[B] of a large flat correction, that began in mid-2008. If my count is correct we are now in the beginning of wave-[C] down. This [C]-wave should ideally end below the end of wave-[A] at 290.

Copper - Testing strong support

Copper is currently testing strong support near 392 a close below this level (I expect it will be broken) will confirm a change in the trend from up to down.
If my count is correct we have ended wave B of an Expanded Flat at 461.85 and should at some point see the low of wave at 124.75 be broken. There is of cause always the risk, that a rare running flat is developing, but as said it's rare and shouldn't the first choise.
For now lets have the break below 392 to confirm that the top is in place.

Copper - Important top seems to be in place

On March 9 - 2011 I had a post regarding Copper vs. S&P 500 - See the linke below:

http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2011/03/copper-vs-s-500-topping.html

In that post I said that Copper might have topped in mid-February. The latest price-action supports that view. The break below the minor trendline from mid-2010 add confidence to that statement. Whats need now is a break below important support at 407.90. If that support breaks there is no more doubt, that an important top was in place with the test of 462.55 on February 14 - 2011.

A top in the Copper complex also supports a possible fifth-failure top in the S&P 500.

Shanghai Composit - Breaking down alongside commodities

The Shanghai Composit is breaking down and today broke below is September 2009 bottom. According to the Dow theory the break below the September bottom was a bearish signal, as we now have lower tops and bottoms.

From and Elliott Wave Principle view my preferred count is that we a in wave iii down from the August 2009 top and should have no trouble breaking below support at 2,525.50. A break below that level will eliminate the possible A-B-C count from the August 2009 top.

In my view the current decline does look very impulsive and not as the end point of a correction.

China has been buying commodities as there was no tomorrow stockpiling especially base-metals like copper, lead, nickle etc., but seem to come to an end too.

Looking at the CRB chart below, there was a very nice symmetry between wave [A] and [B] where wave [A] took 34 week whereas wave [B] took 47 weeks (34 x 1.382). The break below 256.80 marked the the real onset of wave iii down.

Taking a closer look at the final part of the correction in the CRB-Index a very nice Diamond top has formed calling for a decline to at least 242 area.

Finally looking at copper we can see it breaking down too, but a break below 285.40 would mark the ending to the [B] wave rise from 124.75 calling for a decline below 124.75 in wave [C] As can be seen in the chart below wave [B] stopped at exactly the 78.2 % retracement point of wave [A].

The above charts all indicates one thing, that China is headed for an economic slowdown. It has never been my view that China was able to lead the global economy, but China did help along side the US, UK, Japan and Europe to make the [B] wave or wave 2 rally bigger than most of us expected, but the odds favor that it's all over.

Copper - A top i finally in place

The rally in Copper has been relentless taking 55 weeks (a Fibonacci number) since the ultimo December 2009 bottom at 124.41.

My prefered count is, that wave [b] became a double Zig-zag where wave c of Y became equal in size to wave a of Y, but wave c (14 weeks) took twice the time wave a (7 weeks) did. The break below the lower channel support has been the final confimation that wave [B] has ended and we can now expect a deep decline in wave [C] bringen us below the start of wave [A] at 124.41.

First important point of support is the 38.2% correction at 265.19, which is expected to be first target for this new decline.

Copper - Possible top is bulding

Copper has stages an impressiv rally during 2009 rising 176% from bottom to the top, but we now see some clear signs, that a top might be bulding. The test of the channel top was accompanied with a Shooting star, which also could indicate that a top is bulding.

The relationship between wave A and C in the second zig-zag where equal in length at 349.47 with a high set at 352.35. A break below 335 would be first signal that a top is in place, but a break below 306 will be needed to confirm the top.