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Showing posts with label Elliott wave analysis on Apple. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elliott wave analysis on Apple. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Apple - Has more than one bit been taken?

With yesterdays close below the blue trend-line, we might have gotten the first serious warning, that an important top is in place. However we need a break below support at 354 to confirm the top and a continuation towards next support at 310.
If the above count is correct we should see a much deeper decline over the coming months, but for now lets keep an eye on the 354 support.

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Apple - ready for the next leg lower

Long term picture showing, that we could have seen a major top at 422.86


Zooming in on the topping action we can see a five wave decline from 422.86 down to 391.30, followed by a three wave rally to 409.25, just below the 61.8% retracement of wave a or i down.

I do favor the impulsive count calling for a break below support at 385 soon.

Longer term we have the all important support at 353.



Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Apple - Shooting Star chandle



Yesterday I said, that we are in the final stages of the rally, that began in 1997. The big question is whether a top is in place or we could see a move higher towards 450. Today we saw a Shooting Star chandle, which could be a warning of a top, but we need confirmation, which ideally comes in form of a break below 403 and more importantly a break below 353.

Monday, September 19, 2011

Charts of interest

Apple - I doesn't do much in single stocks, but I keep an eye on them and when Apple today reached new all time highs, I do think it's interesting to see, that my count suggest we are in the final part of the rally since 1997. Can we reach 450? Maybe, but I will focus on support at 353 a break below here will be the first serious warning that the top is in place.


Gold - In my daily analysis of gold, I have concluded that we are in a wave iv correction, but looking at the bigger picture we can see, that we are in the later part of the rally since 1999.

The tricky part here is, that we could very well see the last spike up as a run away moon shoot.

Any break below 1,478 will indicate, that the top is in place.


Copper - Has now clearly broken down from the rising channel, calling for a decline towards the 279 - 285 area. But more importantly the breakdown in Copper is telling us, that the global economy is weakening.


Corn - Is also looking weak after the break below 700. We could very well be looking at a Shoulder/Head/Shoulder top. This top-formation will be activated if the neckline at 620 is broken.

I count the rally from late 2008 as wave-[B] of a large flat correction, that began in mid-2008. If my count is correct we are now in the beginning of wave-[C] down. This [C]-wave should ideally end below the end of wave-[A] at 290.

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Apple - Telling us something?

The Monthly chart is showing us a possible ended five wave rally since the low at 3.19 in 1997 to the high at 364.90 in early 2011. A rally of 361.71 points, that took 164 months (look how theres numbers gets very close to the Fibo-numbers 3.618 and 1.618) One should also note, that the final rally from the bottom of wave 4 from the channel support-line went to the channel mid-line, where it did stall. Finally on the long time chart it worth to notice, that wave 3 extended and was over 423.6 time the length of wave 1, while wave 5 became almost exactly 1.618 times longer than wave 3. All add confidence to a possible top or to a ongoing topping process. Looking at wave 5 going from a low at 78.20 to the high of 364.90. It too was a nice looking five wave rally. The break below the wave 2-4 channel support could be a warning, that the entire rally from 3.19 is over, but we need some more evidence, therefore zooming in even closer at the last part of the rally brings to the last chart below.
As can be seen we have massive negative divergence on the MACD indicator, we have broken below the wave 2-4 supportline and we have a possible Shoulder/Head/Shoulder top. What we need is a break below support at 326, which will trigger the S/H/S top, but will at the samme time be the first confirmation that the above count is correct.


Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Apple - A important top is most likely in place

It looks like a nice five wave up move. Apple has been one of the leaders, but it seems that we have come to the end.



The rally in Apple (AAPL) since January 2009 is a nice five wave rally too ending wave 5 up since 1998. If this count is the right one then we should soon see a major bear market take over. The target would be 108 and maybe even the 80-86 area.


As can be seen the Orthodox top was found at 272.46 in late April and we have seen the first two waves of an irregular correction. Wave C should take us down to at least 200 and a break below here will call for a much deeper decline.

Remember my post from April 7 - 2010 regarding Apple possibly forewarning a top. Looking back S&P 500 made its top on April 26 and with Steve Jobs on the cover of Time magazine Apple could be just four months from it's major high. The cover page indicator seems to have worked again.

Friday, April 23, 2010

On April 7'th I had a post under the name " Could Apple be forwarning a possible top?" (http://theelliottwavesufer.blogspot.com/2010/04/apple-could-apple-be-forwarning.html)

Today we saw a nice Throwover the wave 2-4 channal, which tell us that a important top is close at hand. You should also notice that the last part of the price chart has become vertical, which is a clear sign of a "bubble" or overconfidence among investors.

A top in Apple will match a top in the major indices perfectly. It's time to be carefull!