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Monday, May 17, 2010

Shanghai Composit - Breaking down alongside commodities

The Shanghai Composit is breaking down and today broke below is September 2009 bottom. According to the Dow theory the break below the September bottom was a bearish signal, as we now have lower tops and bottoms.

From and Elliott Wave Principle view my preferred count is that we a in wave iii down from the August 2009 top and should have no trouble breaking below support at 2,525.50. A break below that level will eliminate the possible A-B-C count from the August 2009 top.

In my view the current decline does look very impulsive and not as the end point of a correction.

China has been buying commodities as there was no tomorrow stockpiling especially base-metals like copper, lead, nickle etc., but seem to come to an end too.

Looking at the CRB chart below, there was a very nice symmetry between wave [A] and [B] where wave [A] took 34 week whereas wave [B] took 47 weeks (34 x 1.382). The break below 256.80 marked the the real onset of wave iii down.

Taking a closer look at the final part of the correction in the CRB-Index a very nice Diamond top has formed calling for a decline to at least 242 area.

Finally looking at copper we can see it breaking down too, but a break below 285.40 would mark the ending to the [B] wave rise from 124.75 calling for a decline below 124.75 in wave [C] As can be seen in the chart below wave [B] stopped at exactly the 78.2 % retracement point of wave [A].

The above charts all indicates one thing, that China is headed for an economic slowdown. It has never been my view that China was able to lead the global economy, but China did help along side the US, UK, Japan and Europe to make the [B] wave or wave 2 rally bigger than most of us expected, but the odds favor that it's all over.



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