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Friday, February 28, 2014

Elliott wave analysis - Long term count for EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD and EUR/AUD


EUR/USD

My longer term view is that wave E, of the major B wave triangle, ended at 1.3894 and that a impulsive decline is developing in wave C. We have likely seen the first two waves of the impulsive decline. Wave 1 from 1.3894 down to 1.3508 and an expanded flat wave 2 likely ending at 1.3773 and I'm now looking for a break below support at 1.3662 to confirm that wave 3 lower is developing. The first target for wave 3 is at 131.41, but it could easily extend deeper.

USD/JPY
 
We have seen a five wave rally from the 75.56 low to the 105.44 high and we are currently in a major correction towards the 38.2% correction at 94.03.
Short term I'm looking for a break below minor support at 101.36 and more importantly a break below support at 100.73 confirming the next leg lower towards the target at 94.03.
 

GBP/USD
 
My long term is that a major correction from the 2009 low at 1.3514. We saw wave A from 1.3514 to 1.7042 and since the 1.7042 high we have seen a huge B-wave triangle, which ended in a very small E and we are now in wave C higher towards 1.9440 where wave C will be equal in length to wave A.

EUR/AUD
 
After a five wave rally from the mid-2012 low at 1.1605 to 1.5597 and since the 1.5597 high we have seen an expanded flat correction unfolding. We are currently in wave c of this expanded flat correction, which I expect will reach the 38.2% corrective target at 1.4072.
Short term I would like to see a break below support at 1.5085 to confirm the next part of the decline lower towards 1.4072. 

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