Take care and trade safely and see you again on March 18.
Friday, February 28, 2014
Vacation time
I will be on vacation for the next two week. The trip this time goes to Miami Florida.
Take care and trade safely and see you again on March 18.
Take care and trade safely and see you again on March 18.
Elliott wave analysis - Long term count for EUR/USD; USD/JPY; GBP/USD and EUR/AUD
EUR/USD
My longer term view is that wave E, of the major B wave triangle, ended at 1.3894 and that a impulsive decline is developing in wave C. We have likely seen the first two waves of the impulsive decline. Wave 1 from 1.3894 down to 1.3508 and an expanded flat wave 2 likely ending at 1.3773 and I'm now looking for a break below support at 1.3662 to confirm that wave 3 lower is developing. The first target for wave 3 is at 131.41, but it could easily extend deeper.
USD/JPY
We have seen a five wave rally from the 75.56 low to the 105.44 high and we are currently in a major correction towards the 38.2% correction at 94.03.
Short term I'm looking for a break below minor support at 101.36 and more importantly a break below support at 100.73 confirming the next leg lower towards the target at 94.03.
GBP/USD
My long term is that a major correction from the 2009 low at 1.3514. We saw wave A from 1.3514 to 1.7042 and since the 1.7042 high we have seen a huge B-wave triangle, which ended in a very small E and we are now in wave C higher towards 1.9440 where wave C will be equal in length to wave A.
EUR/AUD
After a five wave rally from the mid-2012 low at 1.1605 to 1.5597 and since the 1.5597 high we have seen an expanded flat correction unfolding. We are currently in wave c of this expanded flat correction, which I expect will reach the 38.2% corrective target at 1.4072.
Short term I would like to see a break below support at 1.5085 to confirm the next part of the decline lower towards 1.4072.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for February 28 - 2014
EUR/JPY
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 142.07
R2: 141.27
R1: 140.29
Current Spot: 139.47
S1: 138.68
S2: 137.55
S3: 136.22
Technical Summary:
The downside pressure has been stronger than I expected, therefore we have to consider the possibility that wave b of the decline from 145.69 already is in place and wave c lower towards 126.00 is developing. Short term a break below support at 138.68 is needed to confirm that wave b is indeed in place and wave c developing. However, as long as support at 138.68 is protecting the downside there is a possibility that one last rally closer to 142.26 will be seen.
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 1.6560
R2: 1.6496
R1: 1.6397
Current Spot: 1.6314
S1: 1.6291
S2: 1.6253
S3: 1.6214
Technical Summary:
I was looking for a wave 2 correction towards 1.6445, but it has extended lower and is currently testing support at 1.6290. The downside is limited from here and under no circumstances should we see a break below the start of wave 1 at 1.6252. Short term I will be looking for a break above resistance at 1.6397 as the first good indication that wave 2 is over and wave 3 higher towards 1.7141 is developing. Only a break below the start of wave 1 at 1.6252 will invalidate my bullish count, but even if we does see a break below 1.6252 the downside potential should be limited.
Thursday, February 27, 2014
EUR/JPY - Short term Followup
Well so much for the possible larger triangle. With that possibility out of the way, we have to look at the possible alternate counts. My new preferred count shows that wave x ended at 141.27 the 50% corrective target of the decline from 145.69 to 131.23. I still need to see a break below support at 138.68 to add confidence to this count, but if we does see this break below 138.68 we shod be looking for the part of the decline towards the long term corrective target near 126.00.
Even though my preferred count indicates renewed downside pressure, another alternate count could be that an expanded flat wave b is unfolding calling for a decline to 137.71 before wave c higher towards the 142.25 target.
Elliott wave anlysis of EUR/USD and GBP/USD
EUR/USD
It is still a little early, but I do think that wave 2 ended with the test of 1.3773. I will now be looking for a powerful wave 3 decline towards at least 1.3121. Short term I will be looking for a break below support 1.3562 confirming that wave 2 did end at 1.3773 and wave 3 lower is developing.
GBP/USD
I do think the final wave v higher towards 1.70 is developing, but we do need some additional confirmation in form of a break above minor resistance at 1.6683 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.6702 confirm wave iii of V higher towards at least 1.6852.
Gold - Is wave c of the triangle in place?
Gold
As we can count the first five wave decline of the 1,345.45 high I count wave c as terminated and will be looking for wave d lower towards support near 1,185. I would like to see red wave iii accelerate lower towards at least 1,293 soon to confirm that wave c did indeed end at 1,345.45.
USD/JPY - In the final part of an ending diagonal.
Since the 100.73 low in early February we have seen a simple zig-zag correction, but the c wave has taken a shape of an ending diagonal. Looking at the ending diagonal we are currently in the final wave, which as a maximum target is allowed to reach 103.25, just above the 50% corrective target of wave A from 105.44 to 100.73. I think we will see red wave v of the ending diagonal ending slightly below 103.25. From just below 103.25 or upon a break below 101.64 the next impulsive decline lower is expected
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for February 27 - 2014
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 140.98
R2: 140.78
R1: 140.29
Current Spot: 140.09
S1: 139.87
S2: 139.65
S3: 139.18
Technical Summary:
Over the last couple of days the expected pattern has changed into a possible larger triangle, where we have seen the first three waves and currently is working on the the d wave higher towards 140.98 before the final e wave lower. Once this e wave is in place we should see a break towards the upside, but for now we need to pay close attention to the final two legs of the triangle. Short term I will be looking for a break above minor resistance at 140.29 to confirm that wave d is developing for a move closer to 140.98.
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 1.6567
R2: 1.6520
R1: 1.6462
Current Spot: 1.6448
S1: 1.6413
S2: 1.6342
S3: 1.6305
Technical Summary:
The failure to break above resistance at 1.6538 has kept the wave 2 correction alive and we have seen a continuation lower towards 1.6428. The break below minor support at 1.6445 has opened up for a decline closer to the 61.8% corrective target at 1.6413, before wave 2 is over. Short term only a break above minor resistance at 1.6520 indicates that wave already is over and wave 3 higher towards 1.7141 is developing.
Wednesday, February 26, 2014
Cameco - Ready for a 30% rally.
I have had my eyes on this stock for a long term and it finally seems to be ready to take off in wave iii of c of D. I'm looking for wave D towards 30-35, which is still a nice 30% rally from the present level.
However, longer term the potential is huge, but we need to have patient and wait for the triangle to develop in its on pace
GBP/USD - The bulls did step up their game yesterday.
The bulls did the Work needed yesterday. I do think we saw a quick wave ii, but it just might drag out a bit more and becom slightly deeper towards 1.6638 before wave iii higher towards 1.6879.
Short term a break above 1.6689 will be the first indication that wave iii higher is developing.
DJI - Is an important top in place?
On Monday we saw a new all time high for the S&P 500 Index, but this new all time high has not been seen for the DJI. If this divergence is a warning that DJI soon will rally to a new all time high or it's a warning that a major long term top is just at hand is still blowing in the Wind. However, a break below support at 16,093 and more importantly a break below support at 16,006 will indicate that a top likely has been seen and the E-wave decline of the major expanded triangle could be developing.
I'm looking for a major E-wave decline, but if it has begun is still uncertain, but be prepared for the worst.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for February 26 - 2014
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 141.87
R2: 141.29
R1: 140.83
Current Spot: 140.62
S1: 140.37
S2: 140.13
S3: 139.74
Technical Summary:
The minor triangle broke towards the downside for a test of support at 140.13 before renewed upside pressure emerged. Besides the small detour nothing has changed and I'm still looking for a move higher towards the ideal target at 142.26 before the x-wave from 136.23 finally comes to and end and the next decline towards the 38.2% corrective target of the rally from 94.10 to 145.69 sets in.
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 1.6567
R2: 1.6538
R1: 1.6498
Current Spot: 1.6477
S1: 1.6460
S2: 1.6445
S3: 1.6410
Technical Summary:
The failure to break clearly above 1.6509 keeps the 1.6445 target alive. Short term minor resistance at 1.6498 should protect the upside for the last decline towards the 1.6445 target to end wave 2 and set the stage for wave 3 higher. Only a break above minor resistance and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.6538 indicates that wave 2 is over and wave 3 is developing for a rally higher towards at least 1.7141.
Tuesday, February 25, 2014
Gold - Close to strong resistance.
I'm still looking for a termination of wave c of the wave 4 triangle I have been looking for quite some time now. However, we need a break below support at 1,308 to confirm that wave c is in place and wave d lower towards 1,180 is unfolding. Until we see the break below support at 1,308 we could see wave c move slightly higher, but don't look for to much.
Crude Oil - Look for a deeper correction in wave 2
I'm still looking for a deeper wave 2 correction towards 98.69 and possibly slightly lower towards 97.27 before a new rally should be expected. Short term a break below 101.70 confirms a move lower towards 98.69 and maybe lower.
USD/ZAR - Wave iv is extending, but will w see more downside?
We are currently in wave iv and is currently testing strong support at 10,7431 if this support is broken clearly we should look for a deeper correction towards 10,5414 before the final red wave v higher towards 11,6058 and maybe even higher towards 12,0764.
NBI Index - Extrem causion is warranted here.
This rally is becoming extreme and can't go on for much longer. Once this rally give away to a decline it will come crashing down fast. A break below support at 2,436 will be the first important clue that a long term top is in place.
It's also important to remember that once a exponential rally like this is over it tend to return to the start of the extended rally, which will be near 969.
S&P 500 - New all time high seen, more to come?
A new all time high was seen yesterday. Should this new high be taking as a warning that the Dow Jones Industrial Index is about to make a new high too? Or this a warning of divergence? It's impossible to tell at this point, but it will take a break below support at 1,825 to indicate that a top is in place, but it will take a break below 1,739 to confirm the top and add considerable downside pressure.
US 10Y Treasury Note - Loo for a continuation higher towards 2.89.
Please see my post from February 1 here first.
The correction from 2.67 has done enough to fulfill the minimum, but I do think we are going to see the correction move higher towards the 2.89 before wave B is over and wave C lower can take over.
short term I'm looking for support near 2.72 protecting the downside for the final rally higher towards 2.86. Only a break below support at 2.63 indicates that the B-wave correction is over and that wave C lower is developing.
Natural Gas - Wild swings, but the target is still at 7.20.
We have seen some wild swings the last couple of days, but I'm still looking for a rally closer to the inverted S/H/S target near 7.20. We re clearly in some kind of wave three, which the upside acceleration is proof of.
Short term I will be looking for support near 5.20 protecting the downside. To invalidate my bullish count it will take a break below support at 4.56.
GBP/USD - The bulls will try to step up their game again today.
The bulls didn't step up to the challenge yesterday and we saw one slightly new low at 1.6583, but it seems that the bulls is willing to give it a new try today. We still need a break above resistance at 1.6725 to confirm that wave iv is in place and that wave v higher towards 1.6997 is developing. Once this final wave v of 1 of 3 is over a new correction should be seen, but it should just be a correction before renewed upside pressure is seen.
EUR/USD - Wave 2 should terminate soon.
I'm still looking for for the termination of wave 2 and the start of an impulsive decline in wave 3 lower towards at least 1.3145. However, as long as minor support at 1.3685 protects the downside we could see one more minor high closer to resistance at 1.3818, but at no point should we see a break above the top at 1.3894 as that would invalidate the bearish Count and call for a continuation higher towards 1.4249 before wave E of the major B-wave triangle finally terminates.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for February 25 - 2014
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3:141.87
R2: 141.29
R1: 141.04
Current Spot: 140.67
S1: 140.30
S2: 139.59
S3: 139.59
Technical Summary:
Over the last couple of days a minor b-wave triangle has been unfolding locking the price action into an ever more narrowing range. However, the triangle should be close to terminating and a break towards the upside should be seen for a move closer to the ideal target at 142.26 in wave c. Once this c-wave is done we should expect renewed downside pressure, as the longer term corrective target for the entire rally from 94.10 to 145.69 is at 126.00.
EUR/NZD
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 1.6624
R2: 1.6558
R1: 1.6509
Current Spot: 1.6488
S1: 1.6467
S2: 1.6445
S3: 1.6410
Technical Summary:
As expected the c-wave decline towards the ideal target at 1.6445 has been seen. With a low at 1.6460 the bottom could be in place, but to confirm that a break above minor resistance at 1.6509 is needed. However, as long as minor resistance at 1.6509 protects the upside there is a possibility that we could see one last decline close to the ideal target at 1.6445 before wave 2 terminates and new impulsive rally higher towards at least 1.7141.
Monday, February 24, 2014
GBP/USD - It's time for bulls to step up their game.
We have now seen a correction to 1.6600 just below the ideal corrective target at 1.6604 and it's time for the bulls to step up and break above minor resistance at 1.6725 confirming a new rally above 1.6825 towards the ideal wave v target near 1.6961 to end wave i of 3.
S&P 500 - Long term count
Shivan asked me to take a look at the S&P 500 index, so here we go.
The long term Count is somewhat different from the Dow Jones Industrial Index, but here too we should have seen the top o be very close to the top for a long term decline. I will look for a break below support at 1729.42 and more importantly a break below support at 1,627.47 to confirm that an important top is in place for a major decline.
If my Count is correct we should ultimately see a break below 666.79 to end super cycle wave IV.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for February 24 - 2014
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 141.87
R2: 141.29
R1: 141.04
Current Spot: 140.69
S1: 140.30
S2: 139.99
S3: 139.59
Technical Summary:
I'm still looking for the ongoing correction to hit resistance at 142.26 to end the X wave that began at 136.23. Once this X wave is finished we should see renewed downside pressure towards 136.23 on the way lower towards the ideal corrective target, for the entire rally from 94.10 to 145.69, at 126.00.
Short term support at 140.30 will ideally protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 141.04 confirm the next minor rally closer to the 142.26 target.
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 1.6725
R2: 1.6673
R1: 1.6624
Current Spot: 1.6588
S1: 1.6558
S2: 1.6496
S2: 1.6445
Technical Summary:
The wave 2 correction we are looking for is still unfolding. Short term I expect minor resistance at 1.6624 will protect the upside for one more impulsive decline in wave c lower towards the ideal target at 1.6445. Once this wave 2 correction is over I expect a new powerful wave 3 higher towards at least 1.7141 and possibly even higher towards 1.7561.
Friday, February 21, 2014
DJT - A possible S/H/S top could be building.
Since the 2009 low at 2,147.92 we have likely seen a A-B-C rally higher, where wave C is almost exactly equal in length to wave A. A S/H/S top could currently be building, but we need a break below support 7,133.72 and more importantly support at 7,009.98 to activate the top formation for a strong decline.
GBP/USD - Is wave iv in place for wave v higher?
The wave iv correction from 1.6823 is still unfolding and has as a low tested 1.6611 just above the ideal 1.6604 target. As long as minor resistance at 1.6700 protects the upside we could still see a move closer to the ideal target at 1.6604, but I do think wave iv is in place with the test of 1.6611 and that we soon will see a break above 1.6700 for a new test of 1.6823 and above towards at least 1.6840 and likely even higher towards 1.6974 in wave v.
EUR/USD - Is the expanded wave 2 in place?
If wave 2 is in place at 1.3773 we will need to see a break below support at 1.3685 and downside acceleration soon. As long as support at 1.3685 protects the downside we could still see wave 2 slightly higher towards 1.3804, but once this expanded flat wave 2 is over we should see an extended wave 3 lower towards at least 1.3121 and possibly lower.
Crude Oil - We now have a five wave rally since the 91.25 low. Look for a correction soon.
We now have a five wave rally from the 91.25 low and we should expect a correction lower anytime now. However, we could see wave v move a little higher towards 104.28 before the correction sets in. To confirm that the correction is developing will be a break below 101.13. A break below 101.13 confirms that a correction towards 97.25 is unfolding.
Short term I will look for a move higher towards 104.28 as long as support at 101.97 protects the downside, but any break below here will be the first indication that wave v has terminated.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY and EUR/NZD for February 21 - 2014
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 141.87
R2: 141.26
R1: 140.87
Current Spot: 140.60
S1: 140.20
S2: 139.99
S3: 139.80
Technical Summary:
Important support at 138.95 protected the downside and has kept the correction from 136.23 alive and we should still be looking for a rally higher towards 142.26. Short term we will likely see resistance at 140.87 hold for a minor correction towards 139.80 before the next rally higher towards the ideal target at 142.26. Once this correction is over we should see renewed downside pressure for a decline towards the 38.2% corrective target for the rally from the 94.10 low to the 145.69 high.
Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
R3: 1.6747
R2: 1.6673
R1: 1.6578
Current Spot: 1.6505
S1: 1.6477
S2: 1.6412
S3: 1.6342
Technical Summary:
Wave 1 ended a little earlier than expected. Wave v became equal in length to wave v, which is a common relationship. With the break below 1.6574 we knew that wave 1 was in place and wave 2 was developing. I will be looking for wave 2 towards the bottom of wave iv of one lessor degree at 1.6477. Short term look for resistance at 1.6567; 1.6587 and 1.6606 to protect the upside for the expected decline towards 1.6477. However, we have to be aware that second waves tend to correct a large portion of wave one, which means the expected correction could be deeper and reach 1.6342 before wave 2 is done and wave 3 higher can begin.
Thursday, February 20, 2014
Nasdaq 100 - Important long term top in place?
Is facing very strong resistance and I think we are very close to a top if we hasn't already seen the top for a new major decline.
The first good indication, that the top is in place is a break below support at 3,600 while a break below 3,561 comfirms the top.
USD/ZAR - The final red wave v is likely developing towards 12,0764
Red wave iv likely ended at 10,8120 and should see the final impulsive rally higher towards 11,6068 and ideally higher towards 12,0764 setting the stage for a correction.
Short term we need a break above 11,1660 to confirm that red wave v is developing.
DJI - Wave 2 in place with a high at 16,225.72.
Wave 2 corrected almost exactly 70.7% of wave 1 and I will now be looking for and acceleration downside pressure. The first indication that we did indeed see the top of wave 2 at 16,225.72 was a break below support at 16,039.37 and that support has been broken as the low has been 16,031.66. I will now be looking fora break below important support at 15.863.25 and confirmation that wave 3 lower is developing.
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