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Saturday, February 9, 2013

Novo Nordisk A/S a Textbook Elliott wave five wave rally

Novo Nordisk A/S

Today I would like to present a very interesting chart from Denmark's biggest company Novo Nordisk. If you don't know them they are making Insulin and accounts for about 1/3 of the Danish main index OMXC20 and therefor is more important, that any other stock in the index.

The rally from its low in mid-2002 at 80.50 is an Elliott wave textbook rally of almost 1,400%.

The chart is information packed, but let us take it step by step.

Alone wave 1 from 80.50 to 349.00 in late 2007 is a wonder rally of 433.5% and it took just over Fibonacci 5.5 years. 5 is a Fibonacci number, but so is 55.

Wave 2 was a complex correction combined by first a flat correction and then a zig-zag, which corrected a little more than 38.2% of wave 1 at 248.60. Wave 2 took 1.3 years, which is 23.6% of 5.5 years.

Wave 3 was clearly a much more powerful rally, which broke above the base-channel (in blue) and never looked back. Wave 3 was almost 2 times longer than wave 1 at 724.59. A rally of 300% in slightly less than 2 years (1.9 years to be exactly) a Fibonacci number too.

Wave 4, which alternated with wave 2 in being a simple zia-zag correction, corrected 38.2% of wave 3 at 524.03 in just 6 months. Which was 23.6% of the time it took to build wave 3.

Finally we are at the ongoing wave 5, which we normally would expect to end at either 38.2% or 61.8% the length from the bottom of wave 1 to the top of wave 3 added to the bottom of wave 4. However we have clearly broken above both and is headed towards the 100% length of the distance traveled from the bottom of wave 1 to the top of wave 3. Therefore we have a double extension as both wave 3 and wave 5 is extending and this is where its get really exciting.
When we deal with an extending wave 5 R.N. Elliott said we will get what, he called, a double retracement, but the most important thing to know, when wave 5 is extending is, that once wave 5 is over we should expect a swift decline to wave ii of 5, which would mean a decline to at least 770.00 and possibly even a decline to 648.00 in wave A. But the is more, if wave A was a zig-zag correction the following B wave will not go all the way back to the top of wave A.
Not alone do we know, that we soon can expect a decline in Novo Nordisk of no less than 31%, but it will be swift and give us a possible target where to buy for a large wave B correction.

Would you bet on a continuation higher towards 1,400 (31% up from here) or would you sell you holdings here or even sell-short to gain 31% from near 1,126? By the way take a look at EWO-indicator what a massive divergence on this last rally higher. You choice....

3 comments:

  1. Hi EWS!

    Nice chart :)
    What do you think now about DAX? The top is in?
    Could you show us a chart about DAX?

    Thank you,
    CJ

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi CJ

    Thank you!

    I will update a chart of the DAX duing Sunday.

    The decline from 7,871.79 does look impulsive in character, so I do believe we have a top in place.

    Kind regards
    EWS

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hello EWS,

    Thank you very for the study of NOVO. I think to SHORT it tomorrow ! :)

    Have a good day

    Eric

    ReplyDelete