Dojitrader asked for my long term view on silver. Which I have presented above. Looking at the monthly chart first it looks like we have seen wave 4 end with the test of 26.12 and have begun the final rally higher in wave 5. That said, we are clearly in the very early stages of wave 5 and is likely near or at a low risk buying opportunity (stop below 26.12). However, to confirm that wave 5 is indeed developing we need a break above 30.75 and more importantly a break above 32.47. A break above the later will confirm the next rally higher towards 49.79 with a ideal target for wave 5 near 54.00.
Looking at the daily chart the rally from 26.12 to 35.39 it clearly has impulsive characters, which is what we would expect if wave 5 is developing and the decline from 35.39 down to 28.28 is clearly corrective also what we would expect. So to sum it all up I do expect support at 26.12 to protect the downside for a break above 30.75 indicating that wave 5 towards a new high above 49.79 is developing. A break below 26.12 will invalidate my count and call for a deeper decline towards 24.22 before the next strong support is met.
Hi EWS,
ReplyDeleteLooks like FB has bounced off $27 several times. do you think the probability that it has bottomed may have increased? Like you said before, looks like it is in an area of strong support.
Hi JKF,
ReplyDeleteAs you say we are at strong support and just 6.5% from the ideal corrective target at 25.61.
As long as resistance at 28.94 protects the upside I still expect to see 25.61 tested, but once tested or if we break above 28.94 we should expect the final wave 5 higher towards 34.71.
So the question should more be something like. Will I fight to gain the final 6.5% or should I just buy here to gaine close to 27% in wave 5?
It's you choise...
Kind regards
EWS
think there is good reason to question if we had a failed fifth wave after the wave three top. Five waves up from $32 - $44? If so we now correcting whole upmove and can expect to see $22 or lower ($15)? Not to mention long time scale before things get bullish.
ReplyDelete