I still expect important short term support at 125.73 will protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 126.83, which will confirm a new rally higher towards 127.70 and higher towards the next strong resistance target at 128.98. However, we are fast closing in on the possible top for wave 3 and should be careful about our expectation for this ongoing uptrend. Short term a break below 125.73 will be the first indication, that wave 3 has topped, but it will take a break below 124.01 to confirm the top and that wave 4 has taken over.
Important support at 1.5752 protected the downside well and we are currently testing the minor resistance-line from 1.6359. A break above this resistance-line will confirm the next rally higher towards 1.6278 and 1.6359 on the way towards the ideal target at 1.6524, where blue wave iii will be 1.618 times longer than blue wave i. Short term we will find support at 1.6043 and important support at 1.5990. Any break below 1.5990 will indicate a much deeper decline and that my count is wrong.
The US Dollar, $USD, traded higher; its 200% ETF, UUP, traded up from a multiple bottom. The US Dollar, is going to rise fairly strongly soon, as investors derisk strongly out of Stocks, VT, specifically out of Global Producers, FXR, and out of Nation Investment, EFA, and Small Cap Nation Investment, IFSM, and as investors delever out of Commodities, DBC, which will induce Major World Currencies, DBV, and Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, lower, if currency traders do not call these lower. Soon, the EUR/JPY will fall lower from today’s February 6, 2013, close at 126.35, seen in this Action Forex Chart, causing unwinding of carry trade investments worldwide; an intraday top in the EUR/JPY came in on February 6, 2013, at 127.60.
ReplyDeletePlease consider reading more at The Australian Dollar Joins The British Pound Sterling And The Yen In Trading Lower … The Era Of National Investment Ends As Germany And Ireland Join Spain, Italy, And Greece, In Turning European Shares Lower. http://tinyurl.com/abh6gxf