Important short term support at 124.54 protected the downside for a new move higher to 125.90, but I should only be a question of time before support at 124.54 is broken and the downside pressure is building for a new decline towards 122.89 and lower towards 121.26 and finally the ideal wave 4 target at 117.28. Short term I expect resistance at 125.49 for a break below 124.90, which will confirm the next attach on important support at 124.54. Ideally resistance at 125.90 will protect the upside for now, but only a break above 126.95 will invalidate my count and call for a new rally back towards 127.70 and higher.
After only a shallow wave ii we broke clearly above resistance at 1.5848, which confirmed the next rally higher. Short term I will look for a minor set-back to 1.5928 and maybe 1.5898 before the next rally higher through 1.5978 for a rally towards 1.6060 and 1.6112 as the next minor targets. That said, we must still be aware, that this rally could be part of the complex correction, that began at 1.6359 and if this is the case we most likely will only see a move slightly above 1.5978 before a decline breaks below 1.5802, which will confirm that the complex correction still is ongoing.
Hi EWS,
ReplyDeleteNow that USD/GBP has broken down. I am wondering what your thoughts on the wave 2 correction. I realize we are probably not done with wave 1 yet, but I am guessing we are close. Do you think the GBP can retrace back to the 5 year major trendline at approx. 1.56?
Hi, I know your charts are always on E/J and E/N. I wonder if you can take a look at Euro and share your view? On 4H I consider it as doing a-b-c-x-a-b-c, so a bigger B might be coming. What do you think? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteHi Todd,
ReplyDeleteI with the break below 1.5234 I will admit, that my bullish B-wave triangle was the wrong count and we should be focused towards the downside.
It clearly looks like a thrust out of the triangle towards the downside and as the next target I will be looking for 1.5168. where wave v of 1 will be 100% of the distance traveled from the top of wave i to the bottom of wave iii. If support at 1.5168 marks the bottom of wave 1, then where can we expect wave 2 to end?
I would expect a swift correction back to the 1.5630 - 1.5688 area. When we are dealing with an extended fifth wave we should expect a swift correction back to wave (ii) of v which comes in around this area. That would also be close to the triangle support-line, which has now turned into resistance.
So your call for a retrace back to approx. seems spot on.
Kind regards
EWS
Hi Alex,
ReplyDeleteI will take a look at EUR/USD later today. However, you should be aware that we have broken below the support-line and that does add a lot of pressure towards the downside.
I will post the chart and add the text later today so you can see, what i mean.
Kind regards
EWS