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Thursday, March 25, 2010

EUR/USD - Wave 5 down is ongoing



It has been sometime since I last visited the EUR/USD cross (Feb. 06), so it's time to update the larger picture.

The break below 134.32 yesterday made the decline from 151.41 a five wave move, which has long term implications going forward.

First lets try to pin-point some possible targets for wave 5 down. The first target would be at 132.45, where wave 5 would be 61.8% of wave 1. At 130.30 we find the 78.6% retracement target of the c-wave rally from 124.55 to 151.41.

The wave 2-4 channel points towards 130.30 as the most likely target.

The chart below is the USD-index, which is the invers picture of the above. Target is most likely near the 61.8 retacement at 83.73.

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