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Wednesday, March 10, 2010

DJT - Made a new high for wave [B] - Bullish or bearish?



DJT made a new high above 4,265.46, which should cause both the DJI and S&P 500 to follow and make new highs soon too, but if they don't make new highs and supports begin to break, that would be very bearish due to the Dow theory of non-confirmation.

Looking at the wave-strauctur for the DJT it seems that we need a couple of squiggles more to end the rise from February 5.



I still think you can make a good case of a top in the DJI soon and below the January 19 high at 10,729.87. The count on the DJI is my favorit count, but below on the S&P 500 chart you can see a slightly different count, but that would still call for a top soon and below the January 19 high.

What could and should concern is of cause, that the 78.6% retracement of black circl wave 1 has been broken, that does weaken the black circle wave 2 case, but wave 2 is allowed to retrace up 99% of wave, which make wave two's more tricky.

A break below 10,523 would be first small indication that a top could be in place, but a break below 10,376 and more importantly 10,185 is needed to confirm the top is in place.

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