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Monday, March 15, 2010

AUD/USD - A move closer to 92.64 is possible



The break above 91.50 has opened two possibilities.

1: That wave C will hold suport at 91.09 and rally directly to 92.64 over the next couple of days. A break below 91.09 would eliminate this count.

2: That a wedge shape formation is building. If this picture is the rigth one, suport at 91.09 will be taken out for a move closer to 90.54 finishing legg "D" and then a final E-legg higher towards maximum 94.47. This picture is the least likely and least prefered at this time.

A directe break below 90.54 would eliminate both counts a favor that wave 3 down has begun.

Looking at the massive divergence on the RSI, this rise clearly looks corrective and not at all like a impulsive rally. Had it been a impulsive rally then the RSI ideally would make a new high as wave 3 of 3 unfolded, which is very unlikely in this case. therefore all odds favor, that this is only a correction.

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