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Friday, March 12, 2010

Crude oil - Wave 2 up could have peaked today



The [B] wave in oil has been just as hard to read as the major stock indices. I don't know if is only me or if I got Expanding Diagonals on my mind after digging deeper into them the last couple of days, but a Expanding Diagonal does fit the picture perfectly.

If my count is correcte wave [B] ended on January 12 with a top at 83.95 followed by wave 1 of [C] down to 72.48 and wave 2 of [C] has become a irregular flat (See the hourly chart below for the details of wave 2 up).

It is a bit early to call the ending of wave 2, but the form is right with sub-wave e peaking at 83.10 today just above wave c high at 82.96. The following break below the suport-line of the Ending Diagonal at 81.39 is the first indication that wave 2 is finished. I would like to see a break below wave b of the Ending Diagonal at 80.18 soon, adding further confindence to my assumption that wave 2 has peaked.

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