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Wednesday, January 27, 2010

CRB-Index - Perfect time for a breakdown



The CRB-Index is breaking down after a prolonged time period of correction. Ideally the time used up by the correction would take between 50% to 61,8% of the time used by the wave that are being correctede. Correction can become prolonged as we have just seen here in the CRB-Index in this case the correction has taken 1.382 times the duration that wave [A] took.

Wave [A] took 34 weeks (A Fibonacci number itself) and wave [B] took 34 x 1.382 = 47 weeks.

Looking at the internal relationship of wave [B]. If we regard the correction as an A-B-C correction, wave A took 16 weeks (a little less than half the time wave [A] took). Wave A+B took 21 weeks, which is a Fibonacci number and finally wave C took 26weeks, which is close to 1.618 times wave A (16 x 1.618 = 25.89).

You don't get it much better than that.

As can be seen, we have clearly broken down below the support-line from early March spelling trouble for the commodity currencies - AUD, BRL, CAD, NZD and ZAR (BRL isn't freely traded, so we can count that one out, but for the rest we can expect some very steep falls.

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