Thursday, August 11, 2016

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY - Important long term low could be in place at 130.98





GBP/JPY - Important long term low could be in place at 130.98

The rally of the 116.82 low in mid-September 2011 to the high of 195.88 in late June 2015 is counted as a five wave (impulsive) rally in wave [A] or [1]. The Elliott Wave Principle stats that after an impulsive move and three wave correction could bee seen. This means that a three wave decline should be expected from 195.88. 

As can be seen from the two upper charts (weekly and daily) the decline from 195.88 to 128.75 is best counted as a double zig-zag correction in wave [B] or [2]. Once the correction in wave [B] or [2] was complete a new impulsive rally in wave [C] or [3] was expected. 

The rally of the 128.75 low to 143.24 does look impulsive and is counted as wave i and the decline from 143.24 to 130.98 as a complete wave ii, which means a strong rally is expected in wave iii higher towards at least 154.43, where wave iii will be 161.8% the length of wave i. 

However, to indicate that wave ii indeed is complete, a break above minor resistance at 132.03 and more importantly a break above resistance at 134.02 is needed. As long as minor resistance at 132.03 protects the upside, more downside pressure can not be excluded, but the downside potential is viewed as limited from here. 

Under this count the low at 128.75 needs to hold firm. An unexpected break below this invalidation point, will keep the decline from 195.88 alive for a move to 118.81. 

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